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ATLANTA — Ludacris and Jermaine Dupri performed their legendary anthem ‘Welcome to Atlanta’ on the field before the 2025 MLB All-Star Game at Truist Park, an all-time moment in Atlanta sports history.

After the game’s reserves and pitchers were introduced and ushered onto a stage behind second base, Dupri — who was the master of ceremonies — brought Ludacris out to join him for their seminal 2001 banger.

The duo continued to perform as the All-Star Game starters were announced and the Clark Atlanta Mighty Marching Panthers and Essence Dance Line eventually joined the performers and players around the stage.

Kane Brown performs ‘Georgia On My Mind’ pregame

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ATLANTA — After finishing nine innings all tied up, Major League Baseball All-Star Game was decided by a swing-off for the first time, with the National League emerging victorious after blowing a six-run lead over the final three innings.

In the impromptu home run derby at Truist Park in Atlanta, the teams picked three players to each take three swings. Brent Rooker hit two homers to lead things off for the American League. Kyle Stowers responded with one in his round, then Randy Arozarena also only managed one home run.

Trailing 3-1, Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber came through in the clutch, homering on all three of his swings to put the NL ahead. Then, Jonathan Aranda failed to go long on any of his swings – giving the NL a 4-3 win in the swing-off, with two-time Home Run Derby champion Pete Alonso waiting on deck.

Schwarber was named the game’s MVP for his heroic performance in the swing-off.

‘It was really fun. I credit the guys, too, on our side who were really into it,’ Schwarber said. ‘They were cheering along. The fans were into it. Watching the last guy there and we were all kind of just really into it.’

The new tiebreaker format was installed in 2022, but this was the first time since that the Midsummer Classic had finished even after nine innings. Under this format, the game wound up no winning or losing pitcher – but the NL was officially credited with a 7-6 victory.

‘It will be interesting to see where that goes,’ AL manager Aaron Boone said after the game. ‘There’s probably a world where you could see that in the future, where maybe it’s in some regular season mix. I mean, I wouldn’t be surprised if people start talking about it like that.’

The NL’s win is just the second time the Senior Circuit has emerged victorious since 2013 and the AL now holds a 48-45-2 advantage in the all-time series.

The AL had trailed 6-0 in the seventh and rallied back scoring two in the ninth to tie the game. NL manager Dave Roberts opted to start the final frame with Padres closer Robert Suarez, who gave up a one-out RBI double to Bobby Witt Jr. That prompted Roberts to bring in the Mets’ Edwin Diaz. The right-hander retired the first batter he faced but Steven Kwan’s infield single brought Witt home to make it 6-6.

Boston’s Aroldis Chapman came on for the bottom of the ninth and retired the NL in order to send the contest to the tiebreaker.

The game’s scoring began before AL starter Tarik Skubal had even recorded an out, when Ketel Marte laced a two-run double into the right-field corner to score Shohei Ohtani and Ronald Acuña Jr. But the reigning Cy Young winner limited the damage there, retiring the next three batters with a man on second.

The sides traded zeroes until Alonso hit an opposite-field three-run homer in the bottom of the sixth to make it 5-0 – the first time the Mets slugger has gone long in the game itself. A few batters later, Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll crushed a solo shot to right-center, extending the NL’s lead to 6-0.

Seven NL pitchers had combined to toss six scoreless innings, but the AL answered right back in the top of the seventh, halving the deficit on Brent Rooker’s three-run homer off Giants reliever Randy Rodriguez. Witt added an RBI groundout in the frame, cutting the lead to 6-4.

Brewers phenom Jacob Misiorowski was named an All-Star after just five career starts, which caused a stir around baseball – but Roberts had enough faith in the youngster to bring him into the eighth with a two-run lead. The 23-year-old flamethrower worked around a hit, but got three outs to notch a hold.

The game featured a pair of poignant moments for Los Angeles Dodgers players, the first when Clayton Kershaw – selected for the team as a “Legend Pick” – was removed by Roberts after retiring a pair of batters in the second inning. The future Hall of Famer left to applause, but it was just a preview of what was coming.

First baseman Freddie Freeman, who spent the first 12 years of his career with the Braves, was replaced with one out in the top of the third, allowing the two-time World Series champion a chance to tip his cap to the Atlanta fans while receiving a thunderous standing ovation.

‘I’m OK with crying. That’s just how I am,’ Freeman said. ‘But I didn’t do it today.’

The 2026 All-Star Game will be held at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, the Phillies’ first time hosting since 1996.

All-Star Game MVP: Kyle Schwarber

The Phillies’ Kyle Schwarber was named MVP of the 2025 All-Star Game after homering on all three swings in the tiebreaking swing-off. An unbelievably clutch performance in the impromptu home run run derby for Schwarber, who is a free agent at the end of the 2025 season.

NL wins tiebreaker swing-off 4-3!

American League: 3

  • Brent Rooker: 2 HR
  • Randy Arozarena – 1 HR
  • Jonathan Aranda – 0 HR

National League: 4

  • Kyle Stowers – 1 HR
  • Kyle Schwarber – 3 HR
  • Pete Alonso – N/A

All-Star Game tiebreaker format

Unlike typical regular-season and postseason MLB games, the All-Star Game does not feature extra innings. Instead, the leagues came up with an even more interesting way to determine a winner if the game is knotted up after nine innings: another Home Run Derby.

AL ties it up with ninth-inning rally

With the NL clinging to a two-run lead in the ninth, things got dicey. NL manager Dave Roberts opted to start the inning with Padres closer Robert Suarez, who gave up a one-out RBI double to Bobby Witt Jr. That prompted Roberts to bring in the Mets’ Edwin Diaz, who retired the first batter he faced. But Steven Kwan’s infield single brought Witt home to score, tying the game.

Jacob Misiorowski pitches scoreless eighth

The Milwaukee Brewers’ 23-year-old phenom was named an All-Star after just five career starts, which ruffled some feathers around baseball. NL manager Dave Roberts brought him on in a setup role with a 6-4 lead in the eighth inning, tossing a scoreless inning around a single and a couple of loud outs.

That counts as a hold for Misiorowski!

Brent Rooker home run starts AL rally

Athletics slugger Brent Rooker hit a three-run homer off the Giants’ Randy Rodriguez in the top of the seventh, cutting the AL’s 6-0 deficit in half. Maikel Franco followed Rookier’s blast with a walk and then stole second, advancing to third on a throwing error by catcher Hunter Goodman. Bobby Witt Jr.’s groundout brought Garcia in to score, making it a 6-4 game.

Hank Aaron tribute in Atlanta

Atlanta had to wait four years for its All-Star tribute to Hank Aaron, the baseball icon and Hall of Famer who died in January 2021.

Corbin Carroll home run extends NL lead

Diamondbacks star Corbin Carroll hit a solo homer to right-center off Tigers right-hander Casey Mize, giving the NL a 6-0 lead just a few batters after Pete Alonso’s three-run homer.

Carroll, the 2023 NL Rookie of the Year, had 21 home runs, 10 triples and 11 stolen bases in the first half.

Pete Alonso home run makes it 5-0

The New York Mets slugger clubbed a three-run homer to right field, an opposite-field blast off lefty Kris Bubic that extended the NL’s lead to 5-0.

Alonso entered the All-Star break with a .908 OPS, 21 homers and 77 RBIs. He’s just five home runs behind Darryl Strawberry on the Mets’ all-time list.

Through four innings: NL 2, AL 0

Ketel Marte’s two-run double in the first inning remains the difference so far at Truist Park, with five NL pitchers –Paul Skenes, Clayton Kershaw, Jason Adam, Logan Webb and David Peterson – combining to toss four scoreless frames.

Freddie Freeman leaves to standing ovation

ATLANTA – The incessant pressure for Freddie Freeman to emote has mercifully come to an end. 

From an on-camera interview moments before the All-Star Game in which Fox Sports asked all the leading questions, to an extra-long lingering over his name during pregame introductions that were otherwise conducted at one and a half times the usual speed, to a mid-inning defensive replacement, Freeman won’t have to think about crying anymore. 

National League leads 2-0 after two innings

Yankees lefty Carlos Rodon worked around Pete Crow-Armstrong’s two-out double in the bottom of the second, getting Shohei Ohtani to ground out to first to end the threat.

The NL is 1-for-5 with runners in scoring position, with Ketel Marte’s two-run double in the first the runs so far.

Clayton Kershaw in to pitch second inning

Chosen for the All-Star roster as commissioner Rob Manfred’s ‘Legend Pick,’ the future Hall of Fame southpaw relieved Paul Skenes in the second inning. A three-time Cy Young winner, Kershaw recently became the 20th pitcher with 3,000 career strikeouts.

Kershaw – who was mic’d up – got Cal Raleigh to line out to left and struck out Vladimir Guerrero Jr. looking, before giving way to Padres reliever Jason Adam, walking off the field to a nice ovation from the crowd in Atlanta.

Ketel Marte opens the scoring, NL leads 2-0

Shohei Ohtani singled to center and Ronald Acuña Jr. managed an infield single before Tarik Skubal recorded an out, bringing Ketel Marte to the plate in a big spot. The Diamondbacks slugger laced a double into the right field corner to plate two runs, with Acuña coming all the way around from first to score.

But Skubal limited the damage, getting Freddie Freeman to ground out before striking out Manny Machado and Will Smith.

Paul Skenes gets MLB All-Star Game underway

The Pittsburgh Pirates ace followed up by whiffing Riley Greene for the second out, then got Aaron Judge to ground out to second base to end the top of the first inning.

Zac Brown Band performs All-Star national anthem

MLB All-Star Game starting lineups

American League

Starting pitcher: Tarik Skubal, Tigers

  1. 2B Gleyber Torres, Tigers
  2. LF Riley Greene, Tigers
  3. RF Aaron Judge, Yankees
  4. C Cal Raleigh, Mariners
  5. 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays
  6. DH Ryan O’Hearn, Orioles
  7. 3B Junior Caminero, Rays
  8. CF Javier Baez, Tigers
  9. SS Jacob Wilson, Athletics

National League

Starting pitcher: Paul Skenes, Pirates

  1. DH Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers
  2. LF Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves
  3. 2B Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks
  4. 1B Freddie Freeman, Dodgers
  5. 3B Manny Machado, Padres
  6. C Will Smith, Dodgers
  7. RF Kyle Tucker, Cubs
  8. SS Francisco Lindor, Mets
  9. CF Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs

Where is the MLB All-Star Game 2025?

The 2025 Midsummer Classic is at Truist Park, home of the Atlanta Braves.

MLB All-Star Game history

  • Series history: AL leads 48-44-2
  • American League’s last win: 2024 (5-3 win)
  • National League’s last win: 2023 (3-2 win)

The American League leads the National League 48-44-2 in the all-time series record of the MLB All-Star Game.

The American League has dominated the Midsummer Classic over the last decade, as the American League has won 11 of the last 12 All-Star Games. That dominance only strengthens for the American League when you go back further in the record books, as the American League has won 19 of the last 24 All-Star Games since 2000.

The National League’s longest win streak in the All-Star Game spanned from 1972 to 1982, when it won 11 consecutive games. The National League’s 11-game win streak is the longest win streak by a single league in the history of the All-Star Game.

Jacob Misiorowski: Brewers’ young All-Star earns headlines

ATLANTA — Misiorowski, who stands 6-foot-7, says it’s been a whirlwind since making his MLB debut on June 12, when he tossed five no-hit innings against the St. Louis Cardinals.

‘The last five weeks have been insane,’ Misiorowski said with a smile. ‘I was hoping for the All-Star break to be one of those times where you could sit back and kind of reflect on everything. But we’re here now and we’re doing this.’

National League manager Dave Roberts defended the inclusion of Misiorowski, who is 4-1 with a 2.81 ERA and 33 strikeouts in his five starts, touching 103 mph.

‘My North Star is the All-Star Game should be the game’s best players. It’s about the fans and what they want to see,’ Roberts said. ‘So for this young kid to be named an All-Star, I couldn’t be more excited for him. …

‘It’s an easy answer because if it brings excitement, attention to our game, then I’m all about it.’

Jacob Wilson: Athletics rookie has All-Star pitchers fuming

ATLANTA — Yankees All-Star pitcher Carlos Rodon saw Jacob Wilson in the American League clubhouse Monday, stopped him, and moaned about the difficulty of pitching to him.

“I said, ‘Dude, I’m looking at scouting reports on you and it says to throw fastballs up and in because you’re not supposed to have any hard contact.’ I throw a four-seamer up and in, and you hit a double off me. Come on.’

Shohei Ohtani, Mamiko Tanaka arrive on red carpet

Paul Skenes and Livvy Dunne stun on All-Star red carpet

2026 MLB All-Star Game location

Next year’s All-Star Game will be held at CItizens Bank Park, home of the Philadelphia Phillies. The club lasted hosted the Midsummer Classic in 1996 at Veterans Stadium.

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ATLANTA — Tony Clark, executive director of the Major League Baseball Players Association, believes that MLB owners already are preparing for a lockout after the 2026 season if they don’t get a salary cap in the next collective bargaining agreement – but insists that a cap would be detrimental to the entire sport.

“Institutionalized collusion, that’s what a salary cap is …’ Clark told the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. “A cap is not about a partnership. A cap isn’t about growing the game. A cap is about franchise values and profits. …

“A salary cap historically has limited contract guarantees associated with it, literally pits one player against another and is often what we share with players as the definitive non-competitive system. It doesn’t reward excellence. It undermines it from an organizational standpoint. That’s why this is not about competitive balance. It’s not about fair versus not fair. …

“The history is more lockouts, more work stoppages as a result of that system being in place.’

Baseball has had nine work stoppages, with the last lockout lasting 99 days in 2021-2022. The two sides reached an agreement on a five-year deal on March 10, 2022 which expires on Dec. 1, 2026.

Clark is concerned that another lockout is nearly inevitable simply based on the threats he already is hearing from MLB and the ownership ranks. The union is withholding all of their licensing checks for a potential work stoppage fund.

“It begs the question as to whether or not we’re going to have a good faith negotiation,’’ Clark said. “That remains to be seen when somebody tells you they’re going to lock you out a year and a half out, rather than sit down at the table and see if we can figure our way through that.’

MLB has pushed for a salary cap for years, saying it’s necessary for competitive balance, with the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets having nearly five times the $69 million payroll of the Miami Marlins. There has been no repeat World Series winner since the New York Yankees from 1998-2000, but the last small-market team to win the World Series was the Kansas City Royals in 2015.

Manfred has informed players in his meetings with teams that a salary cap could be advantageous economically, saying that 10% of the players earn 72% of the wages, and that a cap would greatly enhance competive balance.

“When I talk to the players, I don’t try to convince them that a salary cap system would be a good thing,” Manfred said, hours before the All-Star Game. “I identify a problem in the media business and explain to them that owners need to change to address that problem. I then identify a second problem that we need to work together and that is that there are fans in a lot of our markets who feel like we have a competitive balance problem’

Clark strongly disagrees that a salary cap will increase competitive balance in the game, saying plenty of teams have money, based on the financial information they receive, but choose not to be competitive.

“We believe there are ways to incentivize and provide support to those who are in a different market than in LA or New York,’ Clark said. “There’s an opportunity to do that, and do so to the benefit of the group that doesn’t require a restriction on player salaries to do so.’

MLB proposed a salary floor in the last CBA, forcing small market teams to spend at least $100 million, but Clark says that with a floor, there is always a catch.

“Let me clear on this, we’ve never been opposed to a floor,’ Clark said. “We’re opposed with what comes with it, or at least historically has.’

Will MLB stars play in 2028 LA Olympics?

Manfred and Clark spoke for about 45 minutes apiece, covering a wide-ranging array of topics highlighted by the possibility of MLB considering permitting its major-league players to play in the 2028 Olympics if certain conditions are met. MLB would want Olympic games to be played during an extended All-Star break.

“They put out a schedule, they tell you it’s not going to move,’ Manfred said, “we’ll see whether there’s any movement on that. It is possible to take it, to play the All-Star Game in its normal spot, have a single break that would be longer obviously, but still play 162 games without bleeding into the middle of November.

“That is possible, OK? It would require significant accommodations, but it’s possible.’

Los Angeles Olympic organizers met in Atlanta separately with MLB officials and the union, and see a glimmer of hope that MLB players could be in the Olympics, although major obstacles remain.

“In the event that MLB players are going to play, what does that mean and what does that look like?” Clark said. “And perhaps just as importantly, what does it mean for those players who aren’t participating? What type of scheduling adjustments need to be made? What type travel considerations and support need to considered? What does that means in regards to insurance? …

“There’s a lot of work that still needs to be done. We do know players are interested in playing, whether it’s for Team USA or any number of other teams around the world. There’s just a lot of conversation that needs to be had sooner rather than later to see how viable this is, but we’re hopeful that we can figure our way through it for the benefit of the game.”

Says Manfred: ‘I think it is a opportunity to market the game on a really global stage. Obviously, the clubs are going to have to endorse this. I mean, this it’s a big deal.”

Rays stadium status for postseason

MLB said the Tampa Bay Rays will play all of their potential postseason games at George M. Steinbrenner Field, and that Tropicana Field will be ready for their return in 2026.

MLB All-Star Game roster concerns

MLB is concerned with the number of players dropping out of the All-Star game, with 16 alternate players chosen, and not counting at least 10 others who rejected offers to participate. Clark says they have proposed different ideas, and believes that the rigorous travel schedule – with every team now playing each other – has caused a number of players to prefer staying home.

“The requirements for players, the travel and the logistics of their family and support, the day-to-day of a 162-game season,’ Clark said, “is more complex and more challenging than it’s ever been. …We’ve gotten feedback from some of the guys already in regards to things we may want to be thinking about when we talk to the league, whether that’s a longer period of time, or whether that’s different requirements, or different scheduling, or different timing.’’

Said Manfred: “I think what we have to do is continue to work with our very best players to make sure that they’re here and showcasing themselves in front of a fan base. That’s really, really important to us over the long haul.’’

Pitching injuries pile up

Clark remains concerned with the rash of pitching injuries, particularly Tommy John surgeries, which has completely decimated several pitching staffs this season.

“To say that it keeps me up at night is an understatement,’ Clark said. “The game has changed. How pitchers are being used has changed dramatically. And what it is that teams are interested in pitchers doing has changed dramatically. … I think there are a number of factors that are leading to what we are seeing in our game. …

“Pitching injuries and their effects on those players, both in the near term and the long term, let alone their teams, let alone the fans that come to the ballpark, is a personal issue for me.’’

When will ABS system be implemented?

There remains a strong opposition from players towards the automatic-ball strike challenge system that is being used in the All-Star Game, with MLB hoping it implement it for the 2026 season.

No betting on baseball – obviously

Players are continually reminded that gambling in baseball is prohibited, Clark said, no matter if it’s a small parlay or winter-league games – and still worries about the gambling element affecting players.

“We want to make sure that players are protected, their families are protected,’ Clark said. “We found some players in some tough spots as a result of the new climate that we are in. We found family members in tough spots as a result of the climate that we are in. The game is hard enough, let alone having to deal with those types of outside influences.’

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ATLANTA — It would have been easy for New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso to tell All-Star officials, “thanks, but no thanks,’ like so many of his peers.

He could say he was simply fatigued, needed to focus on the second half, or come up with an excuse just like the 16 others who backed out of playing in the game.

Who would blame him? Alonso has already been to four previous All-Star Games, and it’s not like he would be warmly welcomed in Atlanta. The Mets are the enemy down South, as he was coldly reminded during pre-game introductions when he was vigorously booed, and jeered when he replaced Freddie Freeman, the former hometown hero.

Sorry, Alonso isn’t built that way.

This time, he wanted to conserve his energy, keeping fresh for the Mets’ pennant race, but never once considered backing out of the game.

“It’s an honor for me,’ Alonso said. “Certain guys, if they’re banged up, it’s situational. But I’m healthy and I’m appreciative. It’s a great event.

“For me, it’s a no-brainer to come.’

If the fans want him, and his peers voted for him, he believed it was a privilege to come, opting instead to decline an invitation to the Home Run Derby, which he has competed in five times, winning twice.

So, the way Alonso figured it, as long as he was in town, he might as well put on a show.

He nearly brought home a souvenir too, and was the leading candidate to earn the All-Star MVP award after hitting a three-run, sixth-inning homer, only for game to be decided in a historic swing-off. The hero of the tiebreaker, Kyle Schwarber, was named MVP of what was officially a 7-6 National League win in front of a sellout crowd of 41,702 at Truist Park.

Alonso agreed be part of the tiebreaking home run derby, and was the third batter scheduled for the NL in the swing-off. But he was left stranded on deck when Tampa Bay Rays infielder Jonathan Aranda failed to homer, clinching the NL a 4-3 victory.

“Honestly, I felt like a closer going into a game,’ Alonso said, “and then it’s like, ‘Wait, the guy on the field got a double play. You’re not going in. The team wins.’’

So, what was better, winning the home-run derby or winning a swing-off in an All-Star Game?

“For me, I think that beats any Derby win,’ Alonso says. “Like, that’s really special for me. So, I’m stoked. … I mean, to win the All-Star game’s a big deal. It’s obviously a big competitive and pride thing.’

Besides, hitting a homer in an All-Star Game can be forever cherished.

Hitting a few in the Home Run Derby would be forgotten by the trade deadline.

“The Derby and stuff like that environment is just practice at the end of the day,’ Alonso says. “For me to do it in a competitive environment, where they’re trying to get me out and not groove meatballs in there, it’s really special to do that.’

And it still is an honor for Alonso to represent the National League.

“It’s a great way to honor family and friends,’ Alonso said, “because it’s not just, ‘I’m an All-Star.’ They do a great job showing appreciation for family, friends, because every guy out there has a great support system, a village behind them.’

And the Midsummer Classic dropouts certainly didn’t diminish the game in Alonso’s eyes.

“Some guys choose to take breaks,’’ Alonso said, “but you’ve got the best talent on both sides here, whether American League or National League. Full of talent. The best talent, the best players in the big leagues. It’s a really special group on both sides.’

Alonso’s sentiments were echoed by Dodgers 11-time All Star Clayton Kershaw in his pre-game speech to the NL team, letting them know being an All-Star should be an honor, and never, ever be taken for granted.

“The All-Star Game, it can be hard at times for the players,’ Kershaw said. “It’s a lot of travel. It’s a lot of stress, chaos, family, all the stuff. But it’s meaningful. It’s impactful for the game. It’s important for the game.

“We have the best All-Star Game of any sport. We do have the best product. So, to be here, to realize your responsibility in the sport is important. We have Shohei [Ohtani] here. We have Aaron Judge here. We have all these guys that represent the game really, really well, so we get to showcase that and be part of that is important.

“I was super honored to be a part of it.’

Alonso had a blast picking up where he left off in the first half with 21 homers, 77 RBIs and a .908 OPS, leading the Mets to a 55-42 record, one-half game behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East.

“I’m really pleased with my performance so far,” Alonso said. “There’s a really special feeling around the team.  I want to finish out the season strong and help this team do incredible things. I want this to be a very historic year for the franchise.”

Certainly, it’s about to be historic for Alonso, too. He has 247 career homers, just five home runs shy of Darryl Strawberry’s franchise record for homers. Just in time to hit free agency again when he’s expected to opt out of the final year of his two-year, $54 million contract.

“I’m just worried about the team winning,’’ Alonso says. “The rest, will take care of itself.’

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After a relatively quiet week for the S&P 500, we’re seeing some interesting shifts in sector dynamics. Let’s dive into the latest rankings, RRG analysis, and what it means for our portfolio strategy.

Sector Shifts and RRG Insights: Materials on the Move

The big news this week is the ascent of the Materials sector, which has muscled its way into the top five at the expense of the Utilities sector.

The rest of the top five remained steady, but we’re seeing some movement in the lower ranks as well. Consumer Discretionary made a notable jump from #9 to #7, pushing Consumer Staples and Real Estate down a notch each. Energy and Health Care continue to bring up the rear at #10 and #11, respectively.

  1. (1) Technology – (XLK)
  2. (2) Industrials – (XLI)
  3. (3) Communication Services – (XLC)
  4. (4) Financials – (XLF)
  5. (6) Materials – (XLB)*
  6. (5) Utilities – (XLU)*
  7. (9) Consumer Discretionary – (XLY)*
  8. (7) Consumer Staples – (XLP)*
  9. (8) Real-Estate – (XLRE)*
  10. (10) Energy – (XLE)
  11. (11) Healthcare – (XLV)

Weekly RRG

The weekly Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) gives us a broader perspective on sector trends. Technology continues to dominate, firmly entrenched in the leading quadrant, no surprises there. Industrials is showing stability with a short tail in the leading quadrant, indicating a consistent relative uptrend.

Communication Services, however, is raising some eyebrows. It’s lurking in the weakening quadrant with a short tail, suggesting a stable relative uptrend but with negative momentum. Financials are teetering on the edge of the lagging quadrant, a move that demands attention. Materials, despite its rise in the rankings, is actually in the lagging quadrant on the weekly RRG. You will see why it made its way into the top 5 on the daily RRG.

Daily RRG

On the daily RRG, we get a more nuanced picture of short-term sector movements:

  • Materials (XLB) is the star of the show, crossing into the leading quadrant and standing alone in that coveted space.
  • Financials (XLF) is showing weakness, rolling over and heading back towards the lagging quadrant — confirming what we saw on the weekly chart.
  • Communication Services is on the verge of crossing into the lagging quadrant, a sign that is not great for its current #3 ranking.
  • Industrials is flexing its muscles, approaching the leading quadrant with a positive heading.
  • Technology, while rotating into the weakening quadrant, still has ample room to bounce back into leading territory.

Technology

The tech train continues to roll, breaking through resistance around 240 and maintaining its upward trajectory in both price and relative strength. The RS line is pushing higher after a clean breakout from its falling trend, a bullish sign for the sector leader.

Industrials

XLI is following through nicely on both price and relative strength charts. The raw RS line has established a new higher low, dragging the RS ratio higher. In my opinion, this sector looks rock-solid.

Communication Services

Here’s where things get dicey. XLC is clinging to its breakout above 105, but last week’s decline is testing that former resistance as new support. The raw RS line breaking below rising support is a warning sign that this sector could be in for a bumpy ride.

Financials

Similar to Communications Services, Financials has retreated to test old resistance as support. The raw RS line looks even worse here, having broken out of its rising channel weeks ago. Both RRG lines are flirting with the 100 level; a further push into the lagging quadrant seems likely.

Materials

XLB is showing some muscle, breaking out of its falling channel and taking out recent highs. The raw RS line is pushing against falling resistance — if it can break through, we could see a significant turnaround in the RRG lines, confirming the sector’s newfound strength.

Portfolio Performance

Now, for the part that might sting a bit, the portfolio drawdown is ongoing. It’s something trend followers need to learn to live with. Currently, the portfolio is down about 2% for the year, while the S&P 500 is up over 6%. That puts us roughly 8% behind the benchmark YTD.

It’s not a comfortable position, but it’s part of the game. Trend-following strategies often lag in choppy or rapidly changing markets. The key is to stay disciplined and trust in the long-term efficacy of our approach.

#StayAlert and have a great week, Julius


Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) is riding a wave of surging optimism, smashing past $112k as retail and institutional capital pour into the cryptocurrency. Some say the market has grown euphoric, and that a sharp pullback may be lurking around the corner. Others believe this is just the beginning of another leg higher.

A few key questions to guide your analysis: What does $BTCUSD’s history tell us about breakouts above major resistance after a prolonged period of sideways movement? If it’s the start of another move higher, how can you project an upside target? And, if it reverses, where could support levels come into play?

What $BTCUSD’s History Reveals About Breakouts and Big Rallies

Let’s begin by taking a look at a 3-year weekly chart.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF $BTCUSD. Note the crypto’s impressive rallies after clearing resistance following a prolonged period of sideways trading.

In 2023, $BTCUSD traded sideways for six months, repeatedly failing to break above resistance around $31k. But once it did, the crypto soared more than 126% before a major pullback.

A similar pattern unfolded in 2024: seven months in a wide range, unable to clear resistance between $71k and $73k. When $BTCUSD finally broke out in November, it staged a parabolic move, rallying nearly 47% before pulling back again, setting another key resistance zone that brings it to overhead resistance range between $110k–$112k.

So this answers the question posed about $BTCUSD’s historical tendencies after breaking above a prolonged range. Historically, the crypto tends to stage an outsized run once it clears critical resistance. But will it happen this time around? If so, how can you estimate a potential upside target? And if the breakout fails, where might $BTCUSD find support?

Seasonality Trends: $BTCUSD’s Strongest Months

Before looking at a daily chart, let’s look at $BTCUSD’s seasonality chart going back 10 years. If you’re curious as to how the crypto has performed during the summer months, maybe this can help.

FIGURE 2. 10-YEAR SEASONALITY CHART OF $BTCUSD. Most months on average have been quite strong for the asset, but October’s performance has been strong, with an average seasonal return of 21%.

According to its seasonality performance, July is arguably strong with a favorable positive close rate (70%) and return (9.6%). However, October is the crypto’s strongest month, with an 89% positive close rate and an average return of 21%. Over the last 10 years, $BTCUSD’s performance has been volatile, which accounts for the outsize returns on this chart. While seasonal tendencies don’t guarantee a repeat, knowing the general bullish/bearish seasonality context can help inform your analysis and trading decisions.

Now, let’s look at a daily chart to find entry points or estimate an upside target while identifying support, should its breakout fail to follow through.

$BTCUSD Breaks Critical $112K Resistance

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF $BTCUSD. The asset just broke above critical resistance. If you have a position, now’s the time to estimate potential price targets.

$BTCUSD just broke the critical resistance level of $112k. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is indicating strong momentum, easing into an overbought reading. While there’s no way to fundamentally determine the crypto’s upside target, one technical method is to use a measured move by taking the height of the prior range and adding it to the top of the range (or the breakout level; this varies by trader).

Calculating an Upside Target Using a Measured Move Approach

Measuring the range from the support area around $98k up to $110–112k (we’ll settle for $110k), you can project that distance of $12k above the top level of the breakout range, which implies a potential target near $124k, more or less.

$110k breakout + $12k range height = $122k–$124k target, depending on entry.

However, note that some traders don’t wait for a 100% measured move before taking profits. Some will exit positions as soon as a 60% move has occurred, but that really depends on the trader.

Key Support Levels to Watch if the Breakout Fails

Now, if $BTCUSD fails to follow through and reverses, you can reasonably expect support at roughly these three levels:

  • The breakout level near $112k.
  • A strong historical support level at around $110k.
  • Another support level within the previous trading range (shaded red) near $100k, which coincides with concentrated levels of trading activity, according to the Volume-by-Price (the horizontal volume bars on the left side of the chart).

If $BTCUSD falls below the previous trading range, that is, below $98k, then the current rally is likely over.

What to Do Now

Ideally, a trader’s entry point would have been at $112k. Considering that some platforms allow fractional lots of $BTCUSD, some people may choose to enter smaller positions, as a fractional position would minimize risk and reward.

If you already have a position in $BTCUSD, put it in your ChartLists, and set a price alert at $124k or any measured move percentage below that 100% target level (like 60% of the measured move would be at $119k).

If the breakout fails, expect a near-term bounce between $110k and $112k. However, a move lower toward $100k or $98k would likely signal an end to the bullish thesis. Traders might even consider placing a stop a few points below $98k to avoid the likelihood of further downside.

At the Close

$BTCUSD has a history of explosive moves after clearing major resistance, but it can just as easily blindside you with a sudden reversal. That’s why it’s crucial to keep upside and downside levels in mind. Seasonality also favors the bulls, with most months delivering favorable returns. Add the crypto to your ChartLists and set price alerts to track whether your upside target is hit, or whether downside levels signal either an early bounce or a failed rally.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

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