Copper supply in 2026

A significant copper story that developed in 2025 was strained supply. Throughout the year, significant events dragged on the availability of mined copper, delaying its arrival to global markets.

Early on, there was a temporary shutdown of BHP’s (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP) Escondida mine, the largest copper mine in the world. However, the most significant disruption came late in the year, when 800,000 metric tons (MT) of wet material poured into the primary Grasberg block cave (GBC) at Freeport-McMoRan’s (NYSE:FCX) Grasberg mine in Indonesia. The incident cost seven workers their lives and halted production across the operation.

While the company plans to restart the Big Gossan and Deep Level zones before the end of 2025, a phased restart at the GBC won’t start until the middle of 2026, with full operations not resuming until 2027.

Elsewhere, a seismic event at Ivanhoe Mines’ (TSX:IVN,OTCQX:IVPAF) Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in May caused flooding and forced the temporary suspension of mining activities. Although some underground operations have resumed, the company is focused on dewatering the lower portions of the mine.

Since the incident, Ivanhoe has been processing stockpiled materials, but in an update on December 3, it suggested that those stores will be depleted during the first quarter of 2026. Subsequently, it has set its 2026 guidance at 380,000 to 420,000 MT before ramping back up to the 500,000 to 540,000 MT range in 2027.

“Grasberg remains a significant disruption that will persist through 2026, and the situation is similar to constraints at Ivanhoe Mines’ Kamoa-kakula, which experienced output cuts this year,’ he said.

‘We believe these outages will keep the market in deficit in 2026.’

Some relief on the copper supply side may come from the restart of operations at First Quantum Minerals’ (TSX:FM,OTC Pink:FQVLF) Cobre Panama mine. It was forced to shut down in November 2023 after Panama’s supreme court cancelled new 20 year mining contract signed in October 2023. This past Septembe, the Panamanian government ordered a review of the mining lease to restart operations at the site in late 2025 or early 2026.

Similar to Grasberg, restarting mining operations may take some time to return to full production, causing a lag before material from the mine can ease undersupplied market conditions.

Copper demand in 2026

Copper demand is on the rise due to demand from the energy transition, artificial intelligence (AI) and the expansion of data centers, as well as the rapid urbanization of the Global South. However, in 2025, significant demand was also driven by US tariff concerns, as traders have worked to import refined material into the country.

“A huge amount of this tightness has to do with US tariff concerns with refined copper inflows into the US having jumped MT over the year, putting inventory in the country to 750,000 MT,” she said.

Scott-Gray pointed to a “perfect storm” brewing in 2025’s fourth quarter , including a warming outlook driven by easing China-US tensions, US interest rate cuts and China’s 15th five year plan, set to run from 2026 to 2031.

Historically, one of the biggest demand drivers for copper has been the Chinese real estate sector; however, tighter regulations, high debt and low liquidity led to its collapse in 2021, even though the Chinese government has instituted several policies over the past several years to stimulate the sector, to no avail.

According to Reuters, Chinese home prices are set to fall 3.7 percent in 2025, and are expected to decline into the new year as well. Despite these issues, the Chinese economy proved to be robust in 2025 and is expected to post growth of 4.9 percent in 2025 and 4.8 percent in 2026, fueled by high-tech exports.

Additionally, the five-year plan outlays upgrades to the metals sector and growth in new energy.

“Weakness in the property market is likely to continue in 2026, but the story for copper is constructive. Policy focus and capital are expected to prioritize expanding the electricity grid, upgrading manufacturing, renewables and AI-related data centers. These copper-intensive areas are set to more than compensate for a subdued property market, yielding net growth in China’s copper demand next year,” White said.

Copper crunch keeps building

“These things are taking years to fix — so let’s say it takes some of them a year to get fixed and back on track, some of them two years. We’re looking at 2027; by then, the copper demand side will have kicked up even more. My base case is actually for copper deficits to broaden in the next couple of years, then just continue broadening,” he said.

The supply side is also facing headwinds as new operations haven’t come online to replace existing mines that are increasingly challenged by declining grades. While there is new supply in the pipeline, like Arizona Sonoran Copper Company’s (TSX:ASCU,OTCQX:ASCUF) brownfield Cactus project and the Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO,NYSE:RIO,LSE:RIO) and BHP joint venture Resolution project, both in Arizona, they’re still years away.

“While new projects may add tonnage at the margin, demand growth is likely to outpace any supply additions, which points to further supply deficits that escalate over the coming years,” White said.

A May 1 report by the UN Conference on Trade and Development notes that demand is expected to grow by 40 percent by 2040, requiring US$250 billion in investment capital and the construction of 80 new mines.

The report stated that half of the world’s copper reserves are currently located in just five countries.

Chile, Australia, Peru, the DRC and Russia, with structural challenges setting up that go beyond declining grades, most notably geopolitical risk and long mining times.

The scale of the challenges was recently outlined in a report from Wood Mackenzie, which forecast demand increasing by 24 percent to 43 million MT per year by 2035. To balance the market, the report states that 8 million MT of new supply will be required, along with 3.5 million MT from scrap.

Investor takeaway

Overall, according to the International Copper Study Group’s (ICSG) most recent forecast, released on October 8, mine production is expected to increase 2.3 percent in 2026 to 23.86 million MT.

However, refined production is only predicted to increase by 0.9 percent to 28.58 million MT.

Regarding demand, the group stated that refined copper use is expected to grow by 2.1 percent to 28.73 million MT in 2026, outpacing production growth and leading to a 150,000 MT deficit by the end of the year.

White is bullish on copper in 2026, citing low inventories and mine and concentrate deficits. He also suggested tariff threats may not be over, and that regional price differentials and high physical premiums are likely to continue.

With copper deficits expected to accelerate in 2026, prices are set up to hit record highs. Scott-Gray said 2026 could see the average price climb to US$10,635 per MT, with higher prices likely to be off-putting to more price-sensitive buyers.

Additionally, with long-term premiums near record highs, she said market players may look to make purchases on a “just-in-time” basis from alternative sources, such as bonded warehouses or directly from smelters.

Depending on price and supply, consumers could also look to swap out copper for aluminum where practical, though Scott-Gray noted that the switch would have its own limitations.

In data provided by Scott-Gray from StoneX’s Base Metal Front Desk Call, 40 percent of respondents to an LME Metals Poll believe that copper will be the best-performing base metal in 2026.

Bitcoin and Ether price update

Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at US$90,672.01, down by 0.9 percent over 24 hours.

Bitcoin price performance, December 8, 2025.

Chart via TradingView.

Cryptocurrencies traded choppily, but were ultimately directionless over the weekend.

Bitcoin briefly slipped toward the high US$87,000s on Sunday (December 7) ahead of this week’s US Federal Reserve meeting, with both short and long positions liquidated.

Markets are pricing in a 25 basis point interest rate cut from the Fed on Wednesday (December 10), but labor weakness and sticky inflation will make Chair Jerome Powell’s tone pivotal.

Linh Tran, senior market analyst at XS.com, believes Bitcoin “will likely continue oscillating within the US$84,000 to US$100,000 range until the Fed delivers a clear message,” adding that a 0.25 percentage point cut and dovish signals “would be favorable for risk assets, particularly Bitcoin,” while a hawkish stance risks downward pressure.

On Monday, Bitcoin briefly traded at around US$92,000, but failed to retest US$92,000 to US$93,500 resistance, dropping below US$90,000 as the US market opened.

Crypto analyst Daan Crypto Trades said bulls must defend the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement zone, which serves as a key area of support and resistance during market cycles. Failure to do so could result in a fall to April lows. Fellow analyst van de Poppe is eyeing US$86,000 as key support before potential lows retest.

Liquidity stayed thin, and derivatives positioning showed waning momentum rather than clear trend conviction, setting up a cautious, data‑dependent start to the new week.

Last week, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced net outflows of US$87.77 million, while spot Ether ETFs recorded US$65.59 million in outflows.

Cycle data mirroring 2022’s market suggests Bitcoin’s long-term bottom is in or imminent, according to investment manager Timothy Peterson. Derivatives data analyzed by CryptoQuant indicates trader apathy, signaled by low OI and leverage, paving the way for a potential rally.

Ether (ETH) is currently priced at US$3,129.54, down 0.4 percent over 24 hours.

Altcoin price update

• XRP (XRP) was priced at US$2.09, a decrease of 0.2 percent over 24 hours.

• Solana (SOL) was trading at US$134.23, down by 1.3 percent over 24 hours.

Crypto derivatives and market indicators

Bitcoin futures open interest rose 0.53 percent to US$58.18 billion in the last four hours of trading, alongside US$4.88 million in liquidations that hit mostly long positions, while Ether open interest climbed 0.49 percent to US$37.84 billion, with US$8.76 million liquidated.

Bitcoin’s relative strength index sits neutral at 51.67 with a mildly negative funding rate of -0.001 percent, signaling balanced momentum and slight short bias, whereas Ether’s positive 0.006 percent funding rate points to lingering long interest despite the downside pressure.

These metrics reflect cautious positioning amid recent Bitcoin consolidation, with rising open interest indicating fresh capital entering despite liquidation flushes that targeted longs more aggressively. The neutral-to-bearish Bitcoin funding and RSI suggest limited upside conviction short-term, potentially capping rallies until macro catalysts provide direction, while Ether’s funding tilt hints at relative resilience in alt positioning.

Today’s crypto news to know

StableChain launches mainnet

StableChain has launched its mainnet, introducing USDT as the gas fee token alongside a new dedicated governance token for network participants.

Tether’s USDT regulatory win

Tether’s USDT stablecoin received key regulatory status in Abu Dhabi, enhancing its legitimacy for institutional use.

BlackRock files for staked Ether ETF

BlackRock filed to list a staked Ether ETF, signaling growing institutional appetite for Ether-based yield products.

SEC closes Ondo probe

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) ended its investigation into tokenized equity platform Ondo Finance, clearing a major regulatory hurdle.

Strategy boosts BTC holdings

Strategy’s (NASDAQ:MSTR) Bitcoin treasury has surpassed 660,000 BTC after a US$962 million purchase, underscoring aggressive accumulation by major players.

Crypto market maturity and resilience

According to Elkaleh, Bitcoin’s resilience during its recent pullback, which brought a 37 percent drawdown from its October all-time high, was telling. While such severity was surprising, he observed that long-term holders and institutions continued to accumulate rather than unwind exposure, which he sees as an indicator of health.

“Q4 was defined by a major leverage reset, with BTC’s sharp pullback forcing a broader reassessment of risk,” he said.

At the time of this writing, analysts were split on where Bitcoin could go next. A further crash risk lingers if the US Federal Reserve delays interest rate cuts; however, a post-purge rally to US$135,000 to US$150,000 is in sight mid-year if institutions return, exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows flip positive and futures premiums stabilize above 5 percent.

As Bitcoin dropped, Elkaleh observed other segments of the market tied to practical use cases and diversification strategies — such as privacy assets, decentralized AI and stablecoin ecosystems — weather the storm.

“The market (has shown) growing maturity: capital and developer attention shifted toward utility-driven sectors such as tokenization, stablecoins and real-world integrations.”

Tokenization: The on-chain first institutional default

Mersch sees tokenization accelerating in 2026, eventually becoming the default for new institutional financial products.

He sees the foundation of this shift being built, with tokenized treasuries and money-market funds serving as a core yield sleeve for institutional investors who demand liquidity, standardized reporting and programmable settlement.

“If current growth holds, tokenized assets could be a multi-trillion dollar market by 2030, with government bonds and cash-like instruments as the anchor,” he said. “Over the next five years, the key shift is likely that new institutional products are designed as on-chain first, and only secondarily wrapped in legacy wrappers.”

He anticipates that stablecoins will be solidified as the liquidity backbone for a growing tokenized market, acting as the new cash layer. The most likely end state, according to Mersch, will be a hybrid digital cash stack, where bank-issued stablecoins, private stablecoins and central bank digital currenciesco-exist and interoperate.

Mersch predicts that tokenized real estate and private credit will now start to see expansion.

For real estate, tokenization converts a traditionally illiquid market into tradable, divisible assets, lowering the barrier to entry for global investors and providing recurring revenue streams.

Rupena, whose company, Milo, pioneered the crypto-backed mortgage, asserts that lenders will be expected to recognize digital assets as a core part of a client’s real balance sheet, just like cash or securities.

Elkaleh also expects to see strong expansion in RWA tokenization in 2026, alongside stablecoin-based payouts and small-business payment rails. “The most accelerated growth will occur in emerging markets, where mobile-first users turn to crypto as a practical financial alternative,” he wrote in an email.

“The rise of RWA markets, L2 scalability and more accessible DeFi will allow onchain credit and savings to scale meaningfully. Combined with steady institutional inflows, these economies will become the strongest demand engines of 2026, driving both user growth and real economic activity onchain.”

DeFi: An institutional derivatives and credit layer

The final pillar of the 2026 crypto outlook is the maturation of DeFi. Mersch asserted that DeFi is poised to emerge as a compliance-ready core platform for credit and risk management in 2026.

Real-world structural resilience supports Mersch’s forecast.

Rupena noted that market ups and downs are expected in the digital asset ecosystem, and that conservative LTVs, real-time monitoring and clear margining frameworks are designed to cope with volatility.

“Lower forced liquidation activity, even during big market moves, is a very healthy signal,” he explained, adding that customers are purposely keeping collateral cushions so they can stay calm during market swings.

This focus on prudence and durability validates the market’s readiness for institutional-grade credit and risk products.

“If successful, this creates a liquid, 24/7 derivatives layer that sits on top of both tokenized and traditional markets,” Mersch said. “By 2026 and beyond, the most interesting innovation may not be crypto versus TradFi, but portfolio and product designs that blend tokenized assets, stablecoin liquidity and DeFi-based synthetic exposure into a single stack.”

This institutional leap is fundamentally enabled by regulatory clarity.

“You can already see this through partnerships like Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) with Circle Internet Group (NYSE:CRCL) and Morpho (TSE:3653), where yield is embedded at the platform level without requiring users to interact directly with on-chain protocols. Regulation will accelerate that model,’ he added.

Elkaleh noted that clearer rules will allow users to adopt on-chain tools for cross-border payments, tokenized savings and AI-driven bill pay with the same confidence they have in regulated fintech apps. He expects the most transformational impact will come from next-generation L2 scalability paired with AI-agent execution.

“These shifts will bring down transaction costs, compress settlement times, and enable autonomous payments, subscriptions and cross-chain operations,” the expert explained.

“We also expect prediction-market aggregation to emerge as a breakout consumer interface and RWA perpetuals to bring macro assets, including commodities, credit and inflation onchain through synthetic markets. These developments collectively move crypto into a more comprehensive, high-velocity financial system.”

Upcoming crypto market catalysts

The pivot to a hybrid financial system will be driven by several concurrent catalysts.

The US Market Structure Bill is targeted for a Senate floor vote in early 2026, aiming to create the first federal framework for digital assets. North of the border, Canada’s Stablecoin Act, which provides C$10 million for Bank of Canada oversight starting in 2026, signals official endorsement of the digital cash layer.

Globally, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision is set to implement new capital standards for banks’ crypto exposures, crucial for encouraging institutional momentum, by January 1, 2026.

The technological engine supporting this adoption is fueled by scalability and intelligence.

On the blockchain side, Ethereum’s aggressive roadmap, including the Glamsterdam upgrade targeted for 2026, continues to refine Layer-2 (L2) systems. This focus on L2 efficiency, combined with the integration of AI agent execution, is key for supporting the millions of transactions needed for a comprehensive, high-velocity financial system.

Investor takeaway

In 2026, the crypto market is set to deliver meaningful gains and stable, sustained growth as this new, highly efficient, and globally interoperable financial system moves from the laboratory into production scale.