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S&P 500 Rises from Bearish to Neutral, But Will It Last?

Stock 4 Mins Read

The S&P 500 index managed to log one of its strongest weeks in 2025. Short-term breadth conditions have improved, and the crucial 5500 level has now been broken to the upside. Are we in the later stages of a countertrend rally, or just in the early innings of a broader recovery for stocks?

Let’s review three key charts together and evaluate the evidence.

Trendline Break Suggests Further Short-Term Strength

My daily chart of the S&P 500 has featured a thick pink trendline since March, when a lower peak around 5800 provided a perfect opportunity to define the downtrend phase. With the quick reversal off the early April low around 4850, the SPX has finally broken back above this trendline.

To be clear, after a breakout of this magnitude, I’m always looking for confirmation from the following day. Will additional buyers come in to push this chart even further to the upside? Assuming that’s the case, then I’m immediately drawn to a confluence of resistance in the 5750-5850 range. The 200-day moving average is currently sitting right around the late March peak, and both of those levels line up well with a price gap back in November 2024.

If the S&P 500 can finally break above that resistance range, I would expect much further upside for risk assets.

Breadth Conditions Confirm Short-Term Market Strength

One of the biggest improvements I’ve seen coming out of the early April low is the upgrade in short-term breadth conditions. The McClellan Oscillator has broken back above the zero level, most days this week saw more advancers than decliners, and the Bullish Percent Index has definitely improved.

In the bottom panel, we can see that the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index has risen from a low just above 10% at the April low to finish this week at 64%. That confirms that over half of the S&P 500 members generated a point & figure buy signal in the month of April!

But the middle panel shows the real challenge here, in that long-term measures of breadth are still clearly in the bearish range. Just 35% of the S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day moving average, similar to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. It’s only if this indicator can push above the 50% level that the S&P 500 could stand a real chance of sustainable gains above 5750.

The Stoplight Technique Lays Out a Clear Playbook

I love to overlay a “stoplight” visualization on a chart like this, helping me clarify how I’ll think about risk depending on where the S&P 500 sits at any given point.

I would argue that a confirmed break above resistance at 5500 brings the S&P 500 chart into the “neutral” bucket. In this way, we’re respecting the fact that a rally from 4850 to 5500 is a fairly impressive feat, but also acknowledging that the SPX remains below its most important long-term trend barometer, the 200-day moving average.

If we see further gains in the weeks to come, the SPX may indeed push into the bullish range, which for me would mean a push above 5750-5800. In that scenario, the S&P 500 would be clear of its 200-day moving average, and I would feel much more comfortable adding risk to the portfolio. Until and unless we see that upside follow-through, though, I’ll remain comfortably defensive.

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

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Navigate Market Shifts Like a Pro: Utilize This Key Indicator Effectively

Stock 5 Mins Read

After weeks of uncertainty, the stock market finally gave us something to smile about. The major indexes just wrapped up four straight days of gains, and optimism is starting to creep back in. Could this be the shift we’ve been waiting for?

Let’s break it down.

The big concerns this week were all about tariffs and the potential removal of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. But markets breathed a sigh of relief when it looked like tensions might ease between the two largest global economies. Plus, Powell staying put at the Fed helped calm some nerves.

In short, the fear factor took a breather, and the bulls took charge.

What Are the Charts Telling Us?

The S&P 500 ($SPX) crossed above the key 5500 level. This isn’t just any number; it’s a major line in the sand. It represents the March low and, if you go further back on the daily chart below, it has been a support and resistance level for previous price action. The purple horizontal line marks the 5,500 level.

FIGURE 1. SIGNS OF A TURNAROUND? The S&P 500 closed above the key 5,500 level, a major breakthrough. Breadth indicators are suggesting expanding bullish participation. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Even better, market breadth is improving.

We are also seeing strength across the board:

  • BPI readings for the Nasdaq 100, S&P 100, S&P 500, and Dow Industrials are all above 50%.
  • 10 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors have BPIs above 50%, with Consumer Staples being the only one with a BPI below 50. This is surprising since it was one of the only sectors above 50% not long ago.

Sector Watch: Who’s Leading?

If you’re looking for clues about the market’s next big move, watch sector rotation. Right now, leadership is coming from:

  • Technology
  • Consumer Discretionary
  • Communication Services

These are your classic “risk-on” sectors—if they’re leading, that’s typically a bullish sign.

What About Bonds, Gold, and the Dollar?

Some of the big-picture trends are starting to stabilize, too:

  • Bond yields are dipping, which is helping bond prices recover.
  • Gold pulled back after hitting new highs.
  • The U.S. dollar is showing signs of strength again.
  • And the $VIX—Wall Street’s fear gauge—is finally back below 30.

All small signs, but they add up.

Indicator of the Week: The Zweig Breadth Thrust

One indicator all technical analysts should take note of is the Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator.  It’s a rare signal that flashes when market breadth shifts quickly from bearish to bullish.

The indicator is the 10-day exponential moving average (EMA) of net NYSE advances. The NYSE Breadth Thrust signal fires when the indicator moves from below 0.40 to above 0.615 in 10 days.

The weekly chart below shows that this is the third time the Zweig Breadth Thrust signal was fired in the last five years. The last two times this occurred were in 2023, when the NYSE recovered after dipping below its 40- and 150-week simple moving average (SMA). This time, the index bounced off its 150-week SMA.

FIGURE 2. ZWEIG BREADTH THRUST FIRES A REVERSAL SIGNAL. Previous signals have been followed by bullish moves in the NYSE. Will we see a similar scenario this time? Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.The Zweig Breadth Thrust is a bullish reversal signal. Note that each time the signal was fired, the market moved higher. It doesn’t guarantee a bull run, but it’s a green flag.

What’s Coming Next Week?

If this weren’t a headline-driven market, I would be more confident about the possibility of the market moving higher. Next week is packed with potential market-moving headlines.

  • Big Tech earnings
  • Q1 GDP
  • PCE Inflation data (the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge)
  • ISM Manufacturing
  • Non-Farm Payrolls

At the Close

The underlying market conditions are improving and some key signals are flashing green. But, as noted, it’s still a headline-driven market, and that means all the more reason to stay alert. Focus on leading sectors, watch for confirmation in breadth, and keep your investment plan tight.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

  • S&P 500 up 4.59% on the week, at 5525.21, Dow Jones Industrial Average up 2.48% on the week at 40,113.50; Nasdaq Composite up 6.73% on the week at 17,382.94.
  • $VIX down 16.22% on the week, closing at 24.84.
  • Best performing sector for the week: Technology
  • Worst performing sector for the week: Consumer Staples
  • Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR); Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB); Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD); Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK); MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR)

On the Radar Next Week

  • Earnings season continues with Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and others reporting
  • March JOLTs Job Openings
  • Q1 GDP Growth Rate
  • March PCE
  • April ISM Manufacturing
  • April Non-Farm Payrolls

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

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Top Stock Areas After the Rally: What Smart Money Is Buying

Stock 1 Min Read

In this video, after last week’s sharp market rally, Mary Ellen breaks down where the markets stand now, which leading sectors are showing the most strength, and how to recognize if your stocks are entering a new uptrend. Get expert insights on market leadership, sector rotation, and key signals to watch as momentum builds in specific areas of the market. This is a must-watch for investors looking to stay on top of current stock trends and spot early breakout opportunities.

This video originally premiered April 25, 2025. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

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Week Ahead: RRG Indicates Sector Shifts; NIFTY Deals With These Crucial Levels

Stock 4 Mins Read

Following a strong move the week before, the markets took on a more consolidatory look over the past five sessions. Following ranged moves, the Nifty closed the week on just a modestly positive note. From a technical standpoint, the Nifty tested a few important levels on both daily and weekly charts. However, the trading range narrowed. The Index oscillated in a 517.60-point range over the past week. The volatility surged again; the India VIX spiked 10.93% to 17.16. The headline index went on to close with a modest weekly gain of 187.70 points (+0.79%).

The coming week is shortened, with Thursday being a trading holiday due to Maharashtra Day. We could write about more than one thing that the markets could be worried about over the coming days. It could be the lowered growth forecasts by the IMF that include India and other economies; it could also be the heightened possibility of escalating geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan. However, all that said, the markets are also at a crucial technical juncture. The Nifty has closed just at the 200-DMA placed at 24050. Besides this, Index has also defended the 50-week MA at 23925. This makes the 23,900-24,050 zone a crucial support area for the Nifty. The consolidation is imminent as the Nifty has rebounded over 11% from its April 07 lows, and minor corrective retracements cannot be ruled out. However, if 23900 is breached, the markets may see some extended retracements.

The weekly RSI is at 55.46; it stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bullish and stays above its signal line. A candle resembling a Shooting Star has emerged, increasing the likelihood of consolidation. Importantly, any candle formation should not be traded in isolation and must be used in conjunction with the overall technical setup.

The pattern analysis shows that the Nifty has defended the 50-week MA placed at 23925. The Index has also tested a rising trendline resistance; it violated this trendline support on its way down, and now this is expected to act as resistance. Overall, the zone of 24050-23900 is a crucial support zone for Nifty. If the level of 23900 is violated, it can lead to incremental weakness.

Overall, the technical structure of the market suggests that it is time for one to focus more on protecting gains at higher levels. While there could be some reactions by the markets due to external factors, the underlying buoyancy stays intact. The only thing to be cautious about is the natural corrective retracements that the market may experience following the steep upward move that has taken place. Investors must keep fresh purchases should be kept in low-beta stocks that have strong relative strength. With sector rotation visible, a cautious outlook is advised for the day.

Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free float market cap of all the stocks listed.

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show the Nifty PSU Bank Index has rolled inside the leading quadrant. The Consumption, Commodities, Financial Services, Infrastructure, Metal, and Nifty Bank Indices are also inside the leading quadrant. While the weakening of Relative Momentum is seen in the Metal and Financial Services Index, they are likely to outperform the broader markets relatively.

The Nifty Services Sector Index has rolled inside the weakening quadrant.

The Midcap 100 and the Realty Index are showing strong improvement in their Relative Momentum while staying inside the lagging quadrant. The IT and the Auto Index continue to languish inside the lagging quadrant.

The Media Index has rolled inside the Improving quadrant, indicating a likely beginning of its phase of relative outperformance. The Nifty PSE, Energy, and FMCG Indices are also inside the improving quadrant.

Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

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Zweig Breadth Thrust Dominates the Headlines – But What about an Exit Strategy?

Stock 3 Mins Read

The Zweig Breadth Thrust for the S&P 1500 triggered on Thursday as stocks surged last week. In poker terms, this thrust signals an abrupt participation shift as stocks move from folding to all-in within ten days. A bullish thrust signal is only part of the puzzle. How do we know when this signal fails? Today’s report will look at the ZBT signal in the S&P 1500 and offer an exit strategy. Stick around to the end for an offer to access a fully quantified strategy based on the Zweig Breadth Thrust.

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TrendInvestorPro subscribers have access to three timely reports. The first report/video explains the mechanics of the original NYSE-based Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator and then shows a modern version using S&P 1500 Advance-Decline Percent. Second, we also presented a trading strategy using ZBT signals for entry and another indicator for exits. The third report/video covers the setups and thrust signals for the percent above SMA indicators. Some of these indicators also triggered this week, but not all. Click here to take a trial and get full access.

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ZBT Triggers for S&P 1500, but Not S&P 500

The first chart shows the Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT) indicator triggering bullish as it moved from below -20% to above +23% within ten trading days (blue line). This thrust signal means S&P 1500 advance-decline breadth became oversold with strong selling pressure and then recovered in dramatic fashion with a surge in upside participation. Moreover, this shift occurred within a 10 day window. This reversal of fortune was both sudden and sharp.

Note that the Zweig Breadth Thrust triggered an epic signal in November 2023, and we were on it. See this report (11-November-2023) for details on the original NYSE-based Zweig Breadth Thrust. See this report (18-November-2023) for details on using S&P 1500 Advance-Decline Percent to create a Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator.  

S&P 500 ZBT Falls Short

The ZBT indicator for the S&P 500 did not trigger. The indicator was below -20% on April 8th and did not make it back above +23% within the 10 day window. In fact, the indicator did not make it back above +23% this week. This shows less upside participation within the S&P 500, and more upside participation within the S&P 1500. Small and mid cap breadth outperformed large-cap breadth this week.

Where’s the Exit?

The Zweig Breadth Thrust is only used for bullish signals, which means chartists must find another indicator to signal a failed thrust. As its name implies, a thrust is a strong upward move that is powerful enough to foreshadow an extended advance. The Zweig Breadth Thrust in November 2023 provides a classic example as SPY continued higher, never looking back. The blue line shows when both the S&P 1500 and S&P 500 ZBT indicators triggered in early November.

Chartists looking for an exit strategy can consider prior support levels based on reaction lows (troughs). The horizontal blue lines show these support levels, starting with the late October 2023 low. SPY forged a reaction low in January 2025, hit a new high in February and then broke support to trigger an exit. Current support levels are based on the April lows.

Chartists looking for a more dynamic approach can consider a trend-following indicator, which we will explore next (subscribers). This strategy is fully disclosed and quantified with backtest results. Click here to take a trial and get immediate access! 

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Binding Commitments Received for A$1.0 Million under Convertible Note Placement

Investing 5 Mins Read

Nutritional Growth Solutions Limited (ASX:NGS) (‘NGS’ or ‘the Company’), is pleased to announce that it has received binding commitments for the issue of 1,000,000 convertible notes (Placement CNs), to be issued at $1.00 each (CN Placement).

HIGHLIGHTS

  • NGS has secured commitments of A$1.0 million under a placement of convertible notes.
  • Each investor who is issued with ordinary shares on conversion of the convertible notes will be issued with one option for each fully paid ordinary share that is issued on conversion of the convertible notes, with that issuance of options to take place on the same date as the ordinary share issuance date. This is expected to be within 10 business days of NGS shareholders approving that issuance of options including for the purposes of ASX Listing Rule 7.1. These options will be exercisable on a 1:1 basis into fully paid ordinary shares in NGS at an exercise price of $0.04 per option, and will expire 3 years following their issue date if they have not been exercised during that 3 year period.
  • The placement of convertible notes was supported by Australian sophisticated and professional investors.
  • Funds raised from the placement of convertible notes will be used to purchase inventory for retail expansion in CVS and Wakefern, as well as working capital and corporate expenses.

The offer of the Placement CNs was made to sophisticated and professional investors in Australia and successfully closed, achieving binding commitments of A$1.0 million.

Stephen Turner, NGS CEO and Managing Director, commented on the CN Placement:

“We are very pleased with the strong support shown by investors in this placement, which provides important growth capital to support our retail expansion into leading U.S. retailers, including CVS and Wakefern. We would like to thank our shareholders for their ongoing support as we execute our growth strategy and build on the momentum from our recent distribution achievements.”

The conversion of the convertible notes into fully paid ordinary shares in NGS will take place at a price of between A$0.03 and A$0.025 per ordinary share within 10 business days of NGS shareholders approving their conversion including for the purposes of ASX Listing Rule 7.1. NGS expects to convene a general meeting of its shareholders to consider whether to approve the conversion of the convertible notes into fully paid ordinary shares in NGS and whether to approve the issuance of options within the next few weeks.

Until the convertible notes are converted into ordinary shares or redeemed, they bear interest which is payable quarterly in arrear at either 10% per annum (if the holder of the convertible notes elects not to receive ordinary shares in NGS in lieu of cash interest), or 15% per annum (if the holder of the convertible notes elects to receive ordinary shares in NGS in lieu of cash interest). Issuance of ordinary shares in NGS in lieu of cash interest is subject to NGS being in compliance with the ASX Listing Rules. If the convertible notes have not been converted by the date that is 2 years after their issue date, they will be redeemed by NGS at their issue price.

Each investor who is issued with ordinary shares on conversion of the convertible notes will be issued with one option for each fully paid ordinary share that is issued on conversion of the convertible notes, with that issuance of options to take place on the same date as the ordinary share issuance date. This is expected to be within 10 business days of NGS shareholders approving that issuance of options including for the purposes of ASX Listing Rule 7.1. These options will be exercisable on a 1:1 basis into fully paid ordinary shares in NGS at an exercise price of $0.04 per option, and will expire 3 years following their issue date if they have not been exercised during that 3 year period (the CN Holder Options). Quotation of the CN Holder Options on the ASX will be sought.

USE OF PROCEEDS

The net proceeds from the issue of the convertible notes are planned to be used in the following areas:

LEAD MANAGER OPTIONS

The Company engaged GBA Capital Pty Ltd (AFSL 544680) to act as lead manager for the CN Placement (Lead Manager).

Under the terms of the mandate with the Lead Manager, the Lead Manager will be issued with 30% of the number of CN Holder Options (the Lead Manager Options). The Lead Manager Options will be exercisable on a 1:1 basis into fully paid ordinary shares in NGS at an exercise price of $0.04 per Lead Manager Option. The Lead Manager Options will expire 3 years following their issue date if they have not been exercised during that 3 year period.

The Lead Manager Options will be issued within 10 business days of NGS shareholders approving that issuance including for the purposes of ASX Listing Rule 7.1. NGS expects the Lead Manager Options to be issued at the same time as the issuance of the CN Holder Options. Quotation of the Lead Manager Options on the ASX will be sought.

Click here for the full ASX Release

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

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Stagflation Looms: Why Economists Are Warning of a Rare and Painful Economic Storm

Investing 8 Mins Read

The American economy may be heading toward stagflation, an environment characterized by high inflation, slowing growth and rising unemployment, US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell cautioned earlier this month.

‘Unemployment is likely to go up as the economy slows in all likelihood, and inflation is likely to go up as tariffs find their way and some part of those tariffs come to be paid by the public,’ Powell said during an April 15 appearance in Chicago.

While he was careful not to use the word ‘stagflation,’ experts have pointed out that the circumstances Powell outlined correspond with its definition, thrusting the term back into public discourse.

But what exactly is stagflation, and why is it such a concern for investors? Read on to find out.

What is stagflation?

Stagflation describes the economic scenario where inflation remains high even as economic growth slows and unemployment rises. Stagflation is a rare occurrence, and contradicts the foundational economic belief that inflation typically rises during economic booms and falls during recessions.

The term was coined by British politician Iain Macleod in 1965 and became infamous during the 1970s oil crisis, when a dramatic spike in oil prices triggered both rising costs and shrinking output across much of the global economy.

In simple terms, stagflation means you’re paying more for everything while earning less; at the same time, finding a new job, or even keeping your current one, becomes more difficult.

The misery index, created to measure such bleak periods, adds the unemployment rate to the inflation rate. During the worst of the 1970s, it exceeded 20. As of March 25, 2025, it stood at around 6.6, with inflation at 2.4 percent and unemployment at 4.2 percent. Many economists fear that number could rise quickly if current trends continue.

Why are experts sounding the alarm on stagflation?

A combination of geopolitical shocks, fragile supply chains and new economic policies — particularly a sweeping series of tariffs enacted by the Trump administration — has created a perfect storm, economists say.

The tariffs include a 10 percent universal tax on all imports, up to 25 percent duties on goods from Canada and Mexico and a staggering 245 percent tariff on imports from China. These are not minor adjustments — they are foundational changes to the pricing structure of the US consumer and business marketplace.

‘The level of the tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated,’ Powell said in a written statement from his Chicago appearance that was published on April 16. ‘The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth.’

In other words, the tariffs act as a supply shock: They make it more expensive to bring goods into the country, which businesses pass on to consumers through price hikes. At the same time, higher costs can lead companies to cut back on investment and hiring, slowing the economy and increasing job losses.

“The Trump White House tariff policy has certainly increased the risk of both higher inflation and lower growth,” Brett House, professor of professional practice in economics at Columbia Business School, told CNBC.

To better understand what’s at stake, economists are looking at the 1970s — a decade that was marked by an oil embargo, skyrocketing prices and stagnant economic activity.

In response, then-Fed Chair Paul Volcker aggressively hiked interest rates, with the federal funds rate peaking at nearly 21 percent in 1981. The move ultimately tamed inflation, but plunged the country into two recessions.

That painful cure became the playbook for handling runaway prices, with central banks committing to maintaining credibility and acting decisively, even at the cost of job losses.

“The Fed’s credibility in keeping inflation low and stable, won over decades, kept longer-term inflation expectations stable,” Fed Governor Adriana D. Kugler said in a recent statement.

Still, today’s economic landscape differs from the 1970s in critical ways. The US is no longer as dependent on foreign oil. And labor unions, once a powerful driver of wage spirals, now represent a smaller portion of the workforce.

However, these differences might not offer much protection. While oil prices are less of a concern today, tariff-induced uncertainty could have a similar chilling effect.

How does stagflation impact everyday life?

For most people, stagflation translates into economic whiplash.

Essentially, prices go up, wages don’t keep pace and job security becomes tenuous. According to Forbes, a rising misery index would create a whole new roster of challenges for the everyday person.

To illustrate, people will likely have to spend more to get the same quantity of food, clothes and gas. Employees’ chances of getting laid off or working fewer hours will increase. For recent college graduates, the job market could become especially brutal. For families, the cost of borrowing — whether to buy a home, finance a car or use a credit card — could rise steeply if the Fed chooses to raise interest rates to combat inflation.

Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, described today’s environment as having a “whiff of stagflation,” where people feel less secure about their financial future, even if the economic statistics haven’t fully caught up to the sentiment.

Is stagflation a certainty?

Not all economists agree that stagflation is inevitable, or that it will reach the same severity as in the 1970s.

Still, concerns are growing. Michael Feroli, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s (NYSE:JPM) chief US economist, issued a warning earlier this month, stating the bank now expects a recession in 2025.

He predicts unemployment will rise to 5.3 percent, while a core measure of inflation will reach 4.4 percent, which he described as a “stagflationary forecast.”

KPMG also projects a shallow recession, with inflation peaking at the end of the third quarter. But even a modest downturn could be painful for vulnerable workers and households already stretched thin by pandemic-era economic disruptions and the fading buffer of savings built up during that time.

What does stagflation mean for investors?

Stagflation presents a complex and often discouraging landscape for investors.

Unlike recessions, where bonds tend to do well as interest rates fall, stagflation often erodes the value of both stocks and bonds. In such periods, equities can suffer from declining corporate profits due to rising input costs, as well as weakening consumer demand, creating varied headwinds for the stock market.

At the same time, high inflation erodes the real value of future earnings, often leading to downward pressure on stock prices, particularly for growth-oriented companies whose valuations depend heavily on projected future cashflow.

Bonds, too, become vulnerable. Inflation eats into the fixed income stream provided by bonds, especially longer-term bonds. As inflation rises, the purchasing power of interest payments declines, and yields on newly issued bonds increase to compensate investors, driving down the market value of existing lower-yield bonds.

This was evident during the 1970s, the last prolonged period of US stagflation. At that time, both the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) and US treasuries experienced prolonged periods of underperformance in real terms.

Gold, on the other hand, surged in value as investors sought assets that could maintain their purchasing power amid inflation and economic uncertainty. The price of gold increased more than 1,000 percent from 1971 to 1980, reflecting its appeal as a hedge during economic stress. Commodities more broadly — such as oil, agricultural products and industrial metals — have historically performed better in stagflationary conditions.

Since commodities prices are a direct input into inflation measures, they tend to rise during inflationary periods, particularly when inflation is driven by supply shocks. For instance, in the 1970s, oil prices quadrupled following the OPEC embargo, delivering significant gains for energy producers and commodity-focused investors.

Still, it’s worth noting that no single asset or strategy is immune to the pressures of stagflation. While diversification, inflation hedging and a focus on quality assets are time-tested approaches, the unique combination of rising prices and faltering growth challenges even seasoned investors.

Investor takeaway

Stagflation is not just an economic term from the past — it may soon be a lived reality for millions and even billions.

With tariffs reshaping trade dynamics in real time, inflation hovering stubbornly above the Fed’s target and job growth showing signs of slowing, the conditions are set for a troubling period ahead.

Whether or not future policymaking can steer the economy away from this outcome remains to be seen. For now, consumers, businesses and investors alike would do well to prepare for the reality that stagflation brings — not just a historical anomaly, but a modern economic threat.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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Silver Crown Royalties Announces Closing of Final Tranche of its Non-Brokered Private Placement

Investing 6 Mins Read

(TheNewswire)

Silver Crown Royalties Inc. ( Cboe: SCRI, OTCQX: SLCRF, BF: QS0 ) ( ‘Silver Crown’ ‘SCRi’ the ‘Corporation’ or the ‘Company’ ) is pleased to announce that the Company has successfully closed the third and final tranche (‘ Final Tranche ‘) of its non-brokered offering of units ( ‘Units’ ) that was previously announced on February 6, 2025 (the ‘Offering’ ) and issued 89,400 Units at a price of C$6.50 per Unit, for gross proceeds of approximately C$581,100

Each Unit consists of one common share ( ‘Common Share’ ) and one Common Share purchase warrant ( ‘Warrant’ ), with each Warrant exercisable to acquire one additional Common Share at an exercise price of C$13.00 for a period of three years from the closing date. A total of 232,248 Units were issued in accordance with the Offering for cumulative gross proceeds of C$1,509,615.

The proceeds from the Final Tranche will be used to partially fund the second tranche of the Company’s silver royalty acquisition on the Igor 4 project in Peru, as well as general and administrative expenses. All securities issued are subject to a statutory hold period of four months plus one day from the date of issuance, in accordance with applicable securities legislation. The closing was subject to customary conditions, including the approval of Cboe Canada Inc.

Regarding the receipt of payments from the Company’s producing royalties, Silver Crown expects to receive cash payments equivalent to approximately 6,703 ounces of silver in the first quarter of 2025. This is driven by the early payment of the PPX/Igor 4 royalty as well as payments under the Elk Gold Royalty.

ABOUT Silver Crown Royalties INC.

Founded by industry veterans, Silver Crown Royalties ( Cboe: SCRI | OTCQX: SLCRF | BF: QS0 ) is a publicly traded, silver royalty company. Silver Crown (SCRi) currently has four silver royalties of which three are revenue-generating. Its business model presents investors with precious metals exposure that allows for a natural hedge against currency devaluation while minimizing the negative impact of cost inflation associated with production. SCRi endeavors to minimize the economic impact on mining projects while maximizing returns for shareholders. For further information, please contact:

Silver Crown Royalties Inc.

Peter Bures, Chairman and CEO

Telephone: (416) 481-1744

Email: pbures@silvercrownroyalties.com

FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS

This release contains certain ‘forward looking statements’ and certain ‘forward-looking information’ as defined under applicable Canadian and U.S. securities laws. Forward-looking statements and information can generally be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as ‘may’, ‘will’, ‘should’, ‘expect’, ‘intend’, ‘estimate’, ‘anticipate’, ‘believe’, ‘continue’, ‘plans’ or similar terminology. The forward-looking information contained herein is provided for the purpose of assisting readers in understanding management’s current expectations and plans relating to the future. Readers are cautioned that such information may not be appropriate for other purposes. Forward-looking statements and information include, but are not limited to, the proceeds from the Final Tranche will be used to partially fund the second tranche of the Company’s silver royalty acquisition on the Igor 4 project in Peru, as well as general and administrative expenses. Forward-looking statements and information are based on forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable and assumptions that, while believed by management to be reasonable, are inherently subject to significant business, economic and competitive uncertainties and contingencies. Forward-looking information is subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual actions, events or results to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking information, including but not limited to: the impact of general business and economic conditions; the absence of control over mining operations from which SCRi will purchase gold and other metals or from which it will receive royalty payments and risks related to those mining operations, including risks related to international operations, government and environmental regulation, delays in mine construction and operations, actual results of mining and current exploration activities, conclusions of economic evaluations and changes in project parameters as plans continue to be refined; accidents, equipment breakdowns, title matters, labor disputes or other unanticipated difficulties or interruptions in operations; SCRi’s ability to enter into definitive agreements and close proposed royalty transactions; the inherent uncertainties related to the valuations ascribed by SCRi to its royalty interests; problems inherent to the marketability of gold and other metals; the inherent uncertainty of production and cost estimates and the potential for unexpected costs and expenses; industry conditions, including fluctuations in the price of the primary commodities mined at such operations, fluctuations in foreign exchange rates and fluctuations in interest rates; government entities interpreting existing tax legislation or enacting new tax legislation in a way which adversely affects SCRi; stock market volatility; regulatory restrictions; liability, competition, the potential impact of epidemics, pandemics or other public health crises on SCRi’s business, operations and financial condition, loss of key employees. SCRi has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in forward-looking statements, there may be other factors that cause results not to be as anticipated, estimated or intended. There can be no assurance that such statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Accordingly, readers are advised not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements or information. SCRi undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking information except as required by applicable law. Such forward-looking information represents management’s best judgment based on information currently available.

This document does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, securities of the Company in Canada, the United States or any other jurisdiction. Any such offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy the securities described herein will be made only pursuant to subscription documentation between the Company and prospective purchasers. Any such offering will be made in reliance upon exemptions from the prospectus and registration requirements under applicable securities laws, pursuant to a subscription agreement to be entered into by the Company and prospective investors. There can be no assurance that forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Accordingly, the reader is cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.

CBOE CANADA DOES NOT ACCEPT RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE ADEQUACY OR ACCURACY OF THIS NEWS RELEASE.

Copyright (c) 2025 TheNewswire – All rights reserved.

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Heliostar Delivers Strong First Quarter 2025 Results

Investing 10 Mins Read

Q1 2025 Operational and Financial Highlights

  • Gold equivalent ounce (‘GEO’) production of 9,082 GEOs and sales of 8,034 GEOs for Q1 2025. The Company is on track to achieve annual sales guidance of 31,000 to 41,000 GEOs for 2025
  • Preliminary interim consolidated cash costs of US$1,175-1,275 per GEOs sold and consolidated all-in sustaining costs (‘AISC’) of US$1,375-1,475 for Q1 2025. The Company is on track to achieve its annual cash cost guidance range of US$1,800-1,900 per GEOs sold and AISC of US$1,950-2,100 per GEOs sold
  • Average sale price of US$2,875 per ounce of gold for Q1 2025
  • Closing of the quarter with US$27M in cash and no debt

Heliostar Metals Ltd. (TSXV: HSTR) (OTCQX: HSTXF) (FSE: RGG1) (‘Heliostar’ or the ‘Company’) is pleased to report preliminary interim results for the three months ended March 31, 2025 (‘Q1 2025’), which corresponds to the fourth quarter of Heliostar’s fiscal reporting year 2024-25.

The Company plans to host a corporate update webinar on May 13th, 2025, at 8:00AM Pacific Time/11:00AM Eastern Time. Full fiscal year-end reporting is anticipated in late July 2025.

Heliostar CEO, Charles Funk, commented, ‘The first quarter of 2025 was a very strong, first full quarter of production for the Company. We restarted production at La Colorada, fully paid off the acquisition debt and returned lower costs than budgeted.

‘In Q2, production is expected to decrease due to drawdown of inventory on the leach pad at San Agustin prior to a planned restart of primary mining activities later in 2025. We remain well on track to meet our production and cost guidance for 2025.

‘Heliostar exited the quarter with a strong cash balance of US$27M. This allows us to expand the drilling program at La Colorada and commence the Company’s largest drilling campaign at our flagship Ana Paula project, where we see potential to increase the high-grade underground resource.

‘Looking forward, in Q2, we are focused on delivering an updated technical report to support a planned increase in production at La Colorada and completing the permitting to allow for the restart of mining at San Agustin. The Company intends to utilize the cash flow from operations to increase annual gold production from both producing mines, as well as build Ana Paula with minimal equity dilution.’

Operational and Financial Results1

Key Performance Metrics La Colorada San Agustin El Castillo Total
Ore processed 2 t ore 959,365 ——- —— 959,365
Gold production 3 oz Au 4,109 4,412 257 8,777
Silver production3 oz Ag 18,279 8,595 546 27,421
GEO production 4 oz GEO 4,312 4,507 263 9,082
Gold sold oz Au 3,112 4,172 497 7,781
Silver sold oz Ag 12,468 9,936 523 22,927
GEO sold 4 oz GEO 3,250 4,282 502 8,034
Cash Cost 5 US$/GEO sold 1,175-1,275
All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) 5 US$/GEO sold 1,375-1,475
Cash and cash equivalents US$ 26,900,000

 

Notes:

  1. Results are preliminary in nature and subject to final reconciliation.
  2. Production from San Agustin and El Castillo from re-leaching.
  3. Metals production before payable deductions.
  4. GEO production and GEO sold are based on weighted average sale prices for Q1 2025 of US$2,875/oz Au and US$31.95/oz Ag.
  5. These measures are non-IFRS financial measures.

Non-IFRS Measures.This news release refers to certain financial measures, such as all-in sustaining cost, which are not measures recognized under IFRS and do not have a standardized meaning prescribed by IFRS. These measures may differ from those made by other companies and accordingly may not be comparable to such measures as reported by other companies. These measures have been derived from the Company’s financial statements because the Company believes that they are of assistance in the understanding of the results of operations and its financial position. Certain additional disclosures for these specified financial measures have been incorporated by reference and can be found in the Company’s MD&A for Q4 2024 available on SEDAR+.

Cash costs.The Company uses cash costs per ounce of metals sold to monitor its operating performance internally. The most directly comparable measure prepared in accordance with IFRS is the cost of sales. The Company believes this measure provides investors and analysts with useful information about its underlying cash costs of operations. The Company also believes it is a relevant metric used to understand its operating profitability and ability to generate cash flow. Cash costs are measures developed by metals companies in an effort to provide a comparable standard; however, there can be no assurance that the Company’s reporting of these non-IFRS financial measures are similar to those reported by other mining companies. They are widely reported in the metals mining industry as a benchmark for performance, but do not have a standardized meaning and are disclosed in addition to IFRS financial measures. Cash costs include production costs, refinery and transportation costs and extraordinary mining duty. Cash costs exclude non-cash depreciation and depletion and site share-based compensation.

AISC.AISC more fully defines the total costs associated with producing precious metals. The AISC is calculated based on guidelines published by the World Gold Council (WGC), which were first issued in 2013. In light of new accounting standards and to support further consistency of application, the WGC published an updated Guidance Note in 2018. Other companies may calculate this measure differently because of differences in underlying principles and policies applied. Differences may also arise due to a different definition of sustaining versus growth capital. Note that in respect of AISC metrics within the technical reports, because such economics are disclosed at the project level, corporate general and administrative expenses were not included in the AISC calculations.

Statement of Qualified Persons

Gregg Bush, P.Eng., and Mike Gingles, Qualified Persons, as such term is defined by National Instrument 43-101 – Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects, have reviewed the scientific and technical information that forms the basis for this news release and have approved the disclosure herein. Mr. Bush is employed as Chief Operating Officer of the Company, and Mr. Gingles is employed as Vice President of Corporate Development.

About Heliostar Metals Ltd.

Heliostar aims to grow to become a mid-tier gold producer. The Company is focused on increasing production and developing new resources at the La Colorada and San Agustin mines in Mexico, and on developing the 100% owned Ana Paula Project in Guerrero, Mexico.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT:

Charles Funk
President and Chief Executive Officer
Heliostar Metals Limited
Email: charles.funk@heliostarmetals.com
Phone: +1 844-753-0045		 Rob Grey
Investor Relations Manager
Heliostar Metals Limited
Email: rob.grey@heliostarmetals.com
Phone: +1 844-753-0045

 

Neither TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Information
This news release includes certain ‘Forward-Looking Statements’ within the meaning of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and ‘forward-looking information’ under applicable Canadian securities laws. When used in this news release, the words ‘anticipate’, ‘believe’, ‘estimate’, ‘expect’, ‘target’, ‘plan’, ‘forecast’, ‘may’, ‘would’, ‘could’, ‘schedule’ and similar words or expressions, identify forward-looking statements or information. These forward-looking statements or information relate to, among other things: In Q2, production is expected to decrease due to drawdown of inventory on the leach pad at San Agustin prior to a planned restart of primary mining activities later in 2025. We remain well on track to meet our production and cost guidance for 2025. This allows us to expand the drilling program at La Colorada and commence the Company’s largest drilling campaign at our flagship Ana Paula project, where we see potential to increase the high-grade underground resource. Looking forward, in Q2 we are focused on delivering an updated technical report to support a planned increase in production at La Colorada and completing the permitting to allow for the restart of mining at San Agustin. The Company intends to utilize the cash flow from operations to increase annual gold production from both producing mines as well as build Ana Paula with minimal equity dilution.

Forward-looking statements and forward-looking information relating to the terms and completion of the Facility, any future mineral production, liquidity, and future exploration plans are based on management’s reasonable assumptions, estimates, expectations, analyses and opinions, which are based on management’s experience and perception of trends, current conditions and expected developments, and other factors that management believes are relevant and reasonable in the circumstances, but which may prove to be incorrect. Assumptions have been made regarding, among other things, the receipt of necessary approvals, price of metals; no escalation in the severity of public health crises or ongoing military conflicts; costs of exploration and development; the estimated costs of development of exploration projects; and the Company’s ability to operate in a safe and effective manner and its ability to obtain financing on reasonable terms.

These statements reflect the Company’s respective current views with respect to future events and are necessarily based upon a number of other assumptions and estimates that, while considered reasonable by management, are inherently subject to significant business, economic, competitive, political and social uncertainties and contingencies. Many factors, both known and unknown, could cause actual results, performance, or achievements to be materially different from the results, performance or achievements that are or may be expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements or forward-looking information and the Company has made assumptions and estimates based on or related to many of these factors. Such factors include, without limitation: precious metals price volatility; risks associated with the conduct of the Company’s mining activities in foreign jurisdictions; regulatory, consent or permitting delays; risks relating to reliance on the Company’s management team and outside contractors; risks regarding exploration and mining activities; the Company’s inability to obtain insurance to cover all risks, on a commercially reasonable basis or at all; currency fluctuations; risks regarding the failure to generate sufficient cash flow from operations; risks relating to project financing and equity issuances; risks and unknowns inherent in all mining projects, including the inaccuracy of reserves and resources, metallurgical recoveries and capital and operating costs of such projects; contests over title to properties, particularly title to undeveloped properties; laws and regulations governing the environment, health and safety; the ability of the communities in which the Company operates to manage and cope with the implications of public health crises; the economic and financial implications of public health crises, ongoing military conflicts and general economic factors to the Company; operating or technical difficulties in connection with mining or development activities; employee relations, labour unrest or unavailability; the Company’s interactions with surrounding communities; the Company’s ability to successfully integrate acquired assets; the speculative nature of exploration and development, including the risks of diminishing quantities or grades of reserves; stock market volatility; conflicts of interest among certain directors and officers; lack of liquidity for shareholders of the Company; litigation risk; and the factors identified under the caption ‘Risk Factors’ in the Company’s public disclosure documents. Readers are cautioned against attributing undue certainty to forward-looking statements or forward-looking information. Although the Company has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially, there may be other factors that cause results not to be anticipated, estimated or intended. The Company does not intend, and does not assume any obligation, to update these forward-looking statements or forward-looking information to reflect changes in assumptions or changes in circumstances or any other events affecting such statements or information, other than as required by applicable law.

To view the source version of this press release, please visit https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/249931

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