U.S. trucking is heading for a slowdown, with industry players fearing the “worst is yet to come” as tariffs start to crimp imports.

Trucking volumes have plunged to near pre-pandemic levels, according to Craig Fuller, founder of the logistics industry publication FreightWaves.

“With imports deteriorating, volumes are expected to fall by another 3-4% over the next month,” Fuller said Tuesday in a post on X, citing the real-time freight data platform Sonar, which he also founded. Fuller said that’s a worrying sign for truckers this year.

Container volumes are down 20% at the busy Port of Los Angeles since a year ago, FreightWaves reported Tuesday, saying “this downturn spells trouble” for trucking firms that ship the overseas cargo inland across the country. Freight trucks carrying goods out of the metro area are “converging downward toward 2020 lockdown levels,” the outlet said.

The flags come as warning signs pile up for the broader U.S. economy due to President Donald’s Trump’s evolving trade war.

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday knocked down its forecast for the year, lowering its January projection for global gross domestic product growth to 2.8%, from 3.6% previously. The IMF also cut its outlook for U.S. growth to just 1.8%, down from 2.7%, citing “epistemic uncertainty and policy unpredictability” out of the White House. Fresh GDP data is due out next Wednesday.

Freight carriers are “heavily dependent on the health of the U.S. economy, and many industry insiders are waiting on the final outcome of tariffs prior to expressing opinions regarding their outlook,” said John Crum, head of specialty equipment finance at Wells Fargo.

Trucks are the nation’s freight mode of choice for everything from grain to gravel, as measured by weight, and also carry the lion’s share, by dollar value, of foodstuffs, electronics and vehicles, federal data shows. Imports accounted for 40% of freight tonnage moved domestically by truck as of 2023.

Despite freight firms’ broader reticence, many are still “expressing caution regarding freight volumes for 2025,” Crum said.

In a separate note, Wells Fargo supply chain finance managing director Jeremy Jansen said one silver lining is that companies “have a bit more profit margins than in 2018/19 to absorb some tariff actions.” 

The growing pessimism comes just months after industry experts were heralding a likely rebound in trucking volumes after two years of declines. Just days before Trump was sworn in to a second term in January, the American Trucking Association released a forecast projecting a 1.6% boost in freight for the year.

“Understanding the trends in our supply chain should be key for policymakers in Washington, in statehouses around the country and wherever decisions are being made that affect trucking and our economy,” ATA President and CEO Chris Spear said in a statement at the time.

But in the more than three months since then, consumers’ outlooks have nosedived, executives across industries have ramped up their warnings about slower sales, and Wall Street has swung wildly in response to ever-shifting signals about the administration’s trade agenda. Small-business owners say they’re doing their best to stockpile inventory before steeper tariffs take hold, even as many already get hit with higher bills from suppliers.

With much of Trump’s sweeping April 2 slate of tariffs temporarily rolled back, shipping volumes could jump in the second quarter “as consumers scoop up pre-tariff goods before prices go up,” logistics researchers at Cass Information Systems said in their March report. “But thereafter, the trade war is likely to extend the for-hire freight recession as higher prices reduce goods affordability and consumers’ real incomes.”

Overall U.S. exports rose 4.6% through February, federal researchers reported this month, while imports surged 21.4% as the trade war heated up.

The Cass Freight Index fell 5.5% in 2023 and 4.1% last year, “and so far, is trending toward another decline in 2025,” the analytics company said.

Mack Trucks recently announced layoffs of hundreds of workers at a Pennsylvania plant due to economic uncertainty, betting on slower demand for its iconic freight vehicles.

The decision drew sharp criticism last week from Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, who said, “I fear that we’re going to see more like this” due to tariffs. “We’re going to see more rising prices, more layoffs, more companies not investing in the future.”

“The economy has COVID,” Fuller wrote in a follow-up X post on Wednesday, in response to downbeat manufacturing data released this week. “The only cure is a deescalation of the tariffs.”

OKLAHOMA CITY — Amazon and Nvidia executives said Thursday that the construction of artificial intelligence data centers is not slowing down, as recession fears have some investors questioning whether tech companies will pull back on some of their plans.

“There’s been really no significant change,” Kevin Miller, Amazon’s vice president of global data centers, said at a conference organized by the Hamm Institute for American Energy. “We continue to see very strong demand, and we’re looking both in the next couple years as well as long term and seeing the numbers only going up.”

The comments run contrary to worrying buzz building on Wall Street about tech companies changing data center buildout plans. Wells Fargo analysts said Monday that Amazon Web Services is pausing some leases on data center commitments, citing industry sources. The magnitude of the pause was unclear, the analysts said, but the comments raised fears that Amazon was doing something similar to Microsoft’s recent move to pull back on some early stage projects.

Miller said “there’s been little tea leaf reading and extrapolating to strange results” about Amazon’s plans.

Nvidia is also not seeing signs of a slowdown, said Josh Parker, the chipmaker’s senior director of corporate sustainability.

“We haven’t seen a pullback,” Parker said. China’s artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek sparked a sell-off in power stocks earlier this year as investors worried that its artificial intelligence model is more efficient and data centers might need as much energy as originally anticipated.

But Parker said Nvidia sees compute and energy demand only rising due to AI, describing the reaction to DeepSeek as “kneejerk.” Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark said 50 gigawatts of new power capacity will be needed by 2027 to support AI. That is the equivalent of about 50 new nuclear plants.

“Anthropic and the other AI companies, what we’re seeing is tremendous growth in the need for new baseload power. We’re seeing unprecedented growth,” Clark said.

The executives were speaking at a gathering of tech and energy companies at a conference in Oklahoma City organized by the Hamm Institute to discuss how the U.S. can address the growing energy needs for AI. There is a growing consensus in both industries that natural gas will be needed to meet the power needs.

OKLAHOMA CITY — Amazon and Nvidia executives said Thursday that the construction of artificial intelligence data centers is not slowing down, as recession fears have some investors questioning whether tech companies will pull back on some of their plans.

“There’s been really no significant change,” Kevin Miller, Amazon’s vice president of global data centers, said at a conference organized by the Hamm Institute for American Energy. “We continue to see very strong demand, and we’re looking both in the next couple years as well as long term and seeing the numbers only going up.”

The comments run contrary to worrying buzz building on Wall Street about tech companies changing data center buildout plans. Wells Fargo analysts said Monday that Amazon Web Services is pausing some leases on data center commitments, citing industry sources. The magnitude of the pause was unclear, the analysts said, but the comments raised fears that Amazon was doing something similar to Microsoft’s recent move to pull back on some early stage projects.

Miller said “there’s been little tea leaf reading and extrapolating to strange results” about Amazon’s plans.

Nvidia is also not seeing signs of a slowdown, said Josh Parker, the chipmaker’s senior director of corporate sustainability.

“We haven’t seen a pullback,” Parker said. China’s artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek sparked a sell-off in power stocks earlier this year as investors worried that its artificial intelligence model is more efficient and data centers might need as much energy as originally anticipated.

But Parker said Nvidia sees computer and energy demand only rising due to AI, describing the reaction to DeepSeek as “kneejerk.” Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark said 50 gigawatts of new power capacity will be needed by 2027 to support AI. That is the equivalent of about 50 new nuclear plants.

“Anthropic and the other AI companies, what we’re seeing is tremendous growth in the need for new baseload power. We’re seeing unprecedented growth,” Clark said.

The executives were speaking at a gathering of tech and energy companies at a conference in Oklahoma City organized by the Hamm Institute to discuss how the U.S. can address the growing energy needs for AI. There is a growing consensus in both industries that natural gas will be needed to meet the power needs.

U.S. spirit exports reached a record $2.4 billion in 2024, driven in large part by tariff concerns and ongoing global trade disputes.

That is according to the American Spirits Exports report published by trade association the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States on Thursday.

“U.S. spirits exports hit a new high in 2024, recapturing lost market share since the UK and EU lifted retaliatory tariffs that were applied between 2018-2021,” said DISCUS President and CEO Chris Swonger. “Unfortunately, ongoing trade disputes unrelated to our sector have caused uncertainty, keeping many U.S. distillers on the sidelines and curtailing sales growth.”

U.S. spirits exports to the EU surged by 39%, fueled by concerns over the potential return of a 50% tariff on American whiskey imports in 2025, which was suspended in 2022.

In March, Trump threatened to put 200% tariffs on French Champagne and other EU spirits, which led European world leaders — specifically from Ireland, France and Italy — to advocate for bourbon tariffs not to return as part of retaliatory measures.

The threat of that specific tariff has faded somewhat as the U.S. and EU continue trade negotiations.

Approximately 50% of U.S. spirits were exported to the EU — totaling $1.2 billion — making it the largest export market.

Exports to the rest of the world, however, declined by nearly 10%, the report found, which reflects the broader softening alcohol category.

Suntory Beam, the Japanese maker of Jim Beam bourbon whiskey, said in December it was preparing for tariffs by stockpiling supply in Europe. The company is already heavily reliant on France and the United Kingdom, which make up over 50% of its global exports market over the last eight years, according to global trade data from Panjiva.

Several of the top states for exports in 2024 are significant bourbon economies, according to the report.

Still, American whiskey exports, which accounted for 54% of all U.S. spirits exports, dipped 5.4% to $1.3 billion.

Swonger said that while outlook for spirits remains highly unpredictable with ongoing trade disputes, one fact rings true in the data: Exports go to countries that have eliminated tariffs.

“We are thankful for President Trump’s early success in securing India’s reduction of its tariff on Bourbon from 150% to 100%,” Swonger said. “It’s our hope that the administration builds on this positive momentum by securing additional tariff reductions in India and reducing trade barriers in other countries.”

Headwinds remain for the industry. Canada, the second largest market for U.S. spirits exports, imposed a 25% tariff in on alcohol coming over the border in March, and several provinces have removed product from shelves.

Distiller and brewers also face steel and aluminum tariffs that impact materials costs for brewers like Constellation Brands, which lowered long-term 2027 and 2028 guidance significantly around “the anticipated impact of tariffs.”

If President Donald Trump’s 145% levy against imports from China holds, Hasbro estimates it could see as much as a $300 million hit to its bottom line.

The toy maker posted better-than-expected earnings on Thursday, but investors and analysts were more focused on the ongoing trade war Trump’s White House has waged against the toy industry’s biggest manufacturer.

Hasbro maintained the full-year guidance it issued last quarter, citing the uncertainty of the current tariff environment.

“Our forecast assumes various scenarios for China tariffs, ranging from 50% to the rate holding at 145% and 10% for the rest of world,” said Gina Goetter, chief financial officer and chief operating officer at Hasbro, during Thursday’s earnings call. “This translates to an estimated $100 million to $300 million gross impact across the enterprise in 2025. Before any mitigation.”

CEO Chris Cocks said during the company’s earnings call that “while no company is insulated, Hasbro is well positioned,” noting the company’s unchanged guidance is “supported by our robust games and licensing businesses and our strategic flexibility.”

“Prolonged tariff conditions create structural costs and heighten market unpredictability,” he said, adding, “ultimately tariffs translate into higher consumer prices.”

Cocks also warned of “potential job losses as we adjust to absorb increased costs and reduced profit for our shareholders.”

The company’s U.S. games business benefits from digital and domestic sourcing, as many of its board games are made in Massachusetts. Its Wizards of the Coast division, which includes Magic: The Gathering and Dungeons & Dragons, has a tariff exposure of less than $10 million, Cocks said, as much of the domestic product is made in North Carolina, Texas and Japan.

The company’s toy segment faces higher exposure, as a larger portion of those goods are made in China. Cocks said the company is exploring options for moving its supply chain to other countries.

“Some of that, though, comes with the cost,” he said. “When we manufacture board games in the U.S., it is significantly more expensive to manufacture here than it is in China.”

He added that the company can shift the sourcing of Play-Doh, for example, from China to its factory in Turkey. Under that scenario, Turkey manufacturers would redirect shipments from Europe to the U.S. and Chinese factories could fill in to supply the European market.

Other products are more difficult to triage, especially those that include electronics, high end deco and foam components, Cocks said.

“China will continue to be a major manufacturing hub for us globally, in large part due to specialized capabilities developed over decades,” he said.

Goetter said that much of the manufacturing changes would be seen in 2026 and are dependent on if those countries already have the capabilities and infrastructure in place to make certain products.

Hasbro is also accelerating its $1 billion cost savings plan in an effort to offset tariff pressures, but noted that price hikes are unavoidable.

“We are going to have to raise prices inside of 145% tariff regime with China,” Cocks said. “We’re just trying to do it as selectively as possible and minimize the burden to the fans and families that we serve.”

Both Goetter and Cocks admitted that Hasbro’s plans are flexible and will change as the tariff situation evolves. The company is hopeful for a “more predictable and favorable U.S. trade policy environment.”

“We’re trying to play both defense and offense at the same time,” Goetter said.