A deal born of conflict and eventual compromise

The minerals deal has a fraught history, with Trump originally pitching it as a way for the US to be “repaid” for military assistance provided to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.

Trump claims the US has sent over US$350 billion in aid, a figure far higher than the official tally of US$183 billion listed on the US government’s own Ukraine Oversight webpage.

That early version of the agreement collapsed after a tense Oval Office meeting on February 28, during which Trump blamed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for failing to prevent Russia’s invasion.

Negotiations were revived following a more conciliatory conversation between the two leaders during Pope Francis’ funeral in Rome. Since then, Trump has softened his public rhetoric toward Kyiv while sharpening criticism of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has dismissed Trump’s ceasefire overtures.

Speaking at a White House cabinet meeting on the day the deal was signed, Trump defended the agreement as a necessary course correction after years of what he described as “throwing money out the window.”

“We had no security, we had no nothing — just pouring money there, unsecured money,” Trump said. “So I said, ‘Well, we want something for our efforts beyond what you would think to be acceptable.’”

The final version of the deal, confirmed by Ukrainian Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, establishes a joint development fund with equal 50/50 profit sharing. “It is important that the agreement will become a signal to other global players that it is reliable to cooperate with Ukraine in the long term — for decades,” she said in a post on X, also emphasizing that Kyiv will retain sovereign control over resource management.

Still, the negotiations came down to the wire. Bessent admitted that Ukrainian officials had proposed last-minute changes, delaying the signing until the afternoon.

The precise terms of the final accord remain under wraps, and the treasury department has declined to release a full copy, despite reporting from the Washington Post and the Kyiv Independent on key provisions.

Opportunities and risks moving forward

While Trump has portrayed the agreement as a personal victory and proof of his commitment to “peace through strength,” some analysts caution that the US-Ukraine minerals partnership could be vulnerable to future instability.

Ed Verona, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, has warned that “few serious US investors will put their shareholders’ money at risk based on such a clearly unbalanced ‘deal.’”

Verona cited Russia’s own resource history as a cautionary tale. “Production sharing agreements signed during the difficult transitional period of the 1990s were subsequently repudiated by Putin’s regime, with Western partners forced to surrender control and majority ownership in major projects,” he said.

Moreover, with no security guarantees attached to the deal, Ukraine’s ability to develop its resource sector could still be jeopardized by continued fighting, especially as some of the most mineral-rich regions remain under Russian control.

As the G7 Summit in Kananaskis, Alberta, approaches, where Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Zelenskyy are expected to meet again, western unity on Ukraine’s reconstruction will be under scrutiny.

1. South Africa

Manganese reserves: 560 million metric tons

At 560 million metric tons, South Africa holds the highest manganese reserves in the world by a long shot. The nation is also the world’s top producer of the metal, with 2024 output of 7.4 million metric tons.

South32 (ASX:S32,LSE:S32,OTC Pink:SHTLF) is a major presence in the South African manganese space. Its South Africa Manganese operation is located in the manganese-rich Kalahari Basin and consists of the open-pit Mamatwan mine, the underground Wessels mine and the Metalloys manganese alloy smelter.

Another ASX-listed manganese miner, Jupiter Mines (ASX:JMS,OTC Pink:JMXXF) is also operating in the area at its Tshipi Borwa mine, considered the largest manganese mine in country and one of the largest in the world.

2. China

Manganese reserves: 280 million metric tons

The country with the next highest manganese reserves is China at 280 million metric tons of manganese. The Asian nation is also the sixth largest producer of manganese ore, the largest producer of refined manganese and the largest consumer of the metal. Unsurprisingly, China’s economy and government regulations have an outsized impact on the global manganese market.

There have been several significant manganese discoveries in China over the last decade. In late 2023, new manganese deposits were discovered in the southeast province of Jiangxi during government-led exploration work, and manganese deposits were discovered in the southwest province of Guizhou in 2017. More recently, in March 2025, Chinese government geologists confirmed an inferred resource estimate of 6.07 million tons of manganese ore in the Maowanli manganese project in the Sichuan province.

Looking further down the value added chain, Australian miner Firebird Metals (ASX:FRB,OTC Pink:FRBMF) has partnered with a subsidiary of China National Chemical Engineering Co. (SHA:601117) to build a high-purity manganese sulphate plant in China, which has entered pilot production. Firebird has an ore supply agreement in place with Eramet (EPA:ERA) for manganese ore to feed the plant, and it could potentially be supplied by Firebird’s Oakover manganese project in Australia in the future.

3. Brazil

Manganese reserves: 270 million metric tons

Brazil hosts a total of 270 million metric tons of manganese reserves as of 2024. The country produced 590,000 metric tons of the metal in 2024, making it the seventh-largest manganese-producing country.

Buritirama Mining, a subsidiary of Grupo Buritipar, is Brazil’s leading producer of the metal. The company invested US$200 million in 2023 to expand operations at its Para state mine.

Major miner Vale (NYSE:VALE), previously the largest manganese miner in the country, offloaded its Brazilian manganese and iron ore assets to J&F Investimentos in 2022. Going forward, J&F has said it plans to invest more than US$1 billion in increasing the iron ore and manganese output from the mines it purchased from Vale.

4. Australia

Manganese reserves: 110 million metric tons

At 110 million metric tons, Australia holds the fourth highest manganese reserves in the world. The nation is also the world’s third largest producer of the metal. In 2024, Australia’s manganese output came in at 2.8 million metric tons.

Australia’s largest manganese ore producer is Groote Eylandt, a 60/40 joint venture between South32 and Anglo American (LSE:AAL,OTCQX:AAUKF), in the nation’s Northern Territory. In mid-March 2024, operations at Groote Eylandt were negatively impacted by Tropical Cyclone Meghan — the second strongest cyclone to hit the area in the past two decades.

The storm damaged critical infrastructure at the site, including a haulage bridge between the mine and processing facilities, as well as the wharf from which manganese ore is shipped. South32 is currently conducting engineering studies to determine a schedule and capital costs to make the repairs needed to restore operations at Groote Eylandt.

As of mid-April 2025, South32 had completed construction at the wharf and expected to start export sales again in May.

5. Gabon

Manganese reserves: 61 million metric tons

Gabon hosts the fifth largest manganese reserves in the world at 61 million metric tons; however, the Central African nation is the second largest producer of the metal with an output of 4.6 million metric tons in 2024.

Gabon is also the largest source of US manganese imports at 63 percent in 2024 compared to 23 percent from South Africa.

Eramet’s Moanda mine is a centerstone of the country’s manganese mining sector and it is based on one of the world’s richest manganese deposits. Eramet is the world’s second largest miner of high-grade manganese ore and operates the mine through its subsidiary COMILOG. In response to an oversupplied market, Eramet temporarily paused production at Moanda in the fourth quarter of 2024, but it has since recommenced.

Bitcoin and Ethereum price update

Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at US$93,992.22 as markets closed for the day, down 1.3 percent in 24 hours. The day’s range has seen a low of US$93,333.62 and a high of US$94,464.34.

Bitcoin performance, April 30, 2025.

Chart via TradingView.

Cryptocurrencies have fallen slightly after the US Department of Commerce revealed that US gross domestic product declined by 0.3 percent in Q1, in contrast to economists’ expectations for a 0.4 percent gain.

Wednesday’s reading marks the first decline since Q1 2022. “Multiple indicators are now showing a recession to be the base case expectation in 2025,” according to the Kobeissi Letter.

Ethereum (ETH) ended the day at US$1,782.75, a 1.9 percent decrease over the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency reached an intraday low of US$1,750.28 and reached its daily high as the markets wrapped.

Altcoin price update

• Solana (SOL) ended the day valued at US$145.18, down 2.5 percent over 24 hours. SOL experienced a low of US$141.31 and peaked at $145.61.

• XRP traded at US$2.19, reflecting a 4.3 percent decrease over 24 hours. The cryptocurrency recorded an intraday low of US$2.15 and reached its highest point at US$2.20.

• Sui (SUI) was priced at US$3.41, showing a decreaseof four percent over the past 24 hours. It achieved a daily low of US$3.32 and a high of US$3.46.

• Cardano (ADA) was trading at US$0.6808, down 3.6 percent over the past 24 hours. Its lowest price on Wednesday was US$0.6711, with a high of US$0.6862.

Today’s crypto news to know

Grayscale launches Bitcoin Adopters ETF

On Wednesday, Grayscale announced the launch of the Grayscale Bitcoin Adopters ETF on the NYSE Arca under the ticker symbol BCOR. The fund is based on the Indxx Bitcoin Adopters Index.

The launch of this exchange-traded fund (ETF) represents the growing interest in Bitcoin among corporations. According to Rahul Sen Sharma, president and Co-CEO at Indxx, public companies’ Bitcoin holdings increased by 16.1 percent in the year’s first quarter, valued at approximately US$57 billion. Roughly 3 percent of Bitcoin’s total supply is now held by companies globally, indicating a major shift in corporate treasury management.

Tether announces plans for US dollar stablecoin

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino announced in a CNBC interview on Wednesday afternoon that his company plans to launch a US dollar stablecoin in the US as early as the end of this year or in early 2026.

Tether’s existing USDT stablecoin is the leading US dollar exporter with a market cap of nearly US$150 billion; however, it is overshadowed in the US by Circle’s rival product, USDC.

Ardoino told CNBC that USDT was created for smaller, developing economies, and that its new product will be designed with features that cater specifically to the US market.

SEC postpones decisions on XRP and DOGE ETFs

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has extended its review period for two proposed spot cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to XRP and Dogecoin, delaying any decision until mid-June.

The agency cited a need for more time to evaluate the filings, specifically the Bitwise DOGE ETF and the Franklin XRP Fund, and the legal issues they raise.

Under federal securities law, the SEC is allowed up to 90 days from the initial publication to make a decision, and this delay appears to fall within that window. Analysts speculated that the delay was anticipated and aligns with broader expectations that most final rulings will land in the fall.

While DOGE and XRP prices saw little immediate movement, the delay signals the SEC’s continued caution around expanding ETF offerings beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Kraken launches ‘Embed’ service to let banks offer crypto trading

Crypto exchange Kraken is opening a new front in institutional crypto adoption with the launch of “Embed,” a plug-and-play crypto trading service for fintechs, neobanks, and traditional financial institutions.

Announced on Wednesday, the service enables companies to integrate crypto trading directly into their apps and websites using Kraken’s APIs, bypassing the need to build costly infrastructure or secure their own licenses.

Amsterdam-based digital bank Bunq is the first to roll out the new service, debuting ‘Bunq Crypto’ to let European users trade digital assets within its existing app.

According to Kraken’s head of payments, Brett McLain, the goal is to offer access to a wide range of tokens and fast asset listings, which he says sets Kraken apart from other white-label providers like Bitpanda.

Embed customers will pay variable service fees and share a portion of trading revenues with Kraken.

KuCoin pledges US$2 billion to Trust project

KuCoin announced a bold US$2 billion investment into what it’s calling the “Trust Project,” a sweeping initiative to restore user confidence and improve transparency across its platform.

The announcement was made during the TOKEN2049 conference in Dubai, where KuCoin executives laid out a roadmap focused on regulatory alignment, user protection, and responsible innovation.

A major component of the project involves giving the exchange’s native token, KCS, a larger role in governance, risk mitigation, and user reward structures. CEO BC Wong said the investment is aimed at securing the “long-term health” of the digital asset ecosystem by strengthening accountability and neutralizing systemic risks.

The initiative arrives as global regulators intensify their scrutiny of centralized exchanges and demand higher standards for custody, disclosures, and user safeguards.

Nasdaq files to list 21Shares Dogecoin ETF

In a fresh bid to tap into retail enthusiasm for meme coins, the Nasdaq has submitted a formal application with the SEC to list the 21Shares Dogecoin ETF, according to a 19b-4 filing released Tuesday.

The ETF is designed to track Dogecoin’s market performance via the CF DOGE-Dollar Settlement Price Index and will hold the token directly, without using leverage or derivatives.

Coinbase Custody Trust has been named as the fund’s official custodian, offering added legitimacy and security to the proposed vehicle. The filing comes in the wake of 21Shares’ S-1 registration and its partnership with the House of Doge — a corporate arm of the Dogecoin Foundation — to promote the fund.

Although the SEC recently delayed a decision on Bitwise’s similar DOGE ETF, Nasdaq’s move signals sustained momentum behind bringing more meme coin exposure to regulated markets.