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No Caitlin Clark, no problem. 

The Indiana Fever defeated the Minnesota Lynx 74-59 in the 2025 WNBA Commissioner’s Cup final to claim the Fever’s first in-season tournament championship. The Fever, who were without Clark (groin) for the third consecutive game, held the Lynx to season-lows in points (55) and field-goal percentage (35.7%). 

Natasha Howard was named the unanimous Commissioner’s Cup MVP after recording 16 points, 11 rebounds, six assists, two steals and one block.

“It feels great. We knew we had to come out here with energy,” said Fever center Aliyah Boston, who finished with a 12-point, 11-rebound double-double despite starting 0-of-6 from the field. 

The Lynx jumped out to a 13-point lead over the Fever in the second quarter, but the Fever responded with an 18-0 run of their own to take the lead and hold it until the end. With the victory, the Fever will split a prize of $500,000 and continue the Commissioner’s Cup streak of home teams going down in the final. The visiting team has won each time, aside from the inaugural Commissioner’s Cup final that was played at a neutral site in 2021.

USA TODAY Sports had coverage of the 2025 WNBA Commissioner’s Cup final. Scroll below for a recap and highlights:

Fever vs. Lynx highlights

Caitlin Clark crashes interview, reacts to win

Clark may have not been on the court, but she was cheering on her teammates from the sidelines. Following the Fever’s Commissioner’s Cup win, Clark tweeted, ‘My girls did their thing !!!!!! So proud!!’

While Boston was giving a postgame interview, Clark burst onto the screen with a triumphant scream and chest bump in celebration.

Fever drink from Commissioner’s Cup, celebrate

End of Q3: Fever 52, Lynx 42

The Fever have a 10-point lead heading into the fourth quarter. Natasha Howard leads the way with a game-high 16 points, 11 rebounds, three assists and two steals. Kelsey Mitchell and Aari Mcdonald both reached double digits with 10 points each. Aliyah Boston’s struggles have continued as she’s been held to four points, shooting 2-of-10 from the field.

Alanna Smith leads the Lynx with 15 points, while Napheesa Collier has eight points and four rebounds.

Halftime: Fever 32, Lynx 27

Now it’s the Fever’s turn to go on a run. Indiana trailed the Lynx by as many as 13 points in the second quarter, but the Fever went on an 18-0 run to take their first lead since earlier in the first quarter. The Fever’s Kelsey Mitchell has a game-high eight points. Aliyah Boston is on the board with two points after starting the night 0-for-6 from the field.

The Lynx were outscored 20-7 in the second quarter and were held scoreless for over eight minutes in the period. The Lynx are up to nine total turnovers that the Fever has cashed in for 11 points.

Alanna Smith has a game-high seven points, while Napheesa Collier is up to six points (3-of-9 FG, 0-of-1 3PT). Smith and Collier failed to score in the second quarter.

End of Q1: Lynx 20, Fever 12

The Lynx jumped out to an eight-point lead over the Fever in the first quarter of the 2025 Commissioner’s Cup final. The Fever’s turnovers spurred the Lynx’s offense. Minnesota went on a 12-0 run that was fueled by three consecutive Fever turnovers. Indiana gave up seven points off five total first-quarter turnovers. 

The Fever leads the league in points in the paint with 40.4 per game, but Minnesota has done a good job taking away the Fever’s inside looks so far and has forced Indiana into some tough shots. The Fever collectively shot 27.8% from the field, while the Lynx shot 60% in the first quarter. 

Aari Mcdonald leads the Fever with five points. Aliyah Boston was held scoreless, shooting 0-for-4 from the field.

Alanna Smith has a game-high seven points, while Napheesa Collier is up to six points. 

How to watch 2025 WNBA Commissioner’s Cup final

The fifth-annual WNBA Commissioner’s Cup final will be decided on Tuesday. A $500,000 prize pool is up for grabs.

  • Date: Tuesday, July 1
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET (7 p.m. CT)
  • Location: Target Center (Minneapolis)
  • TV: None
  • Steaming: Prime Video

The game will be available to view on demand on WNBA League Pass after it concludes.

Will Caitlin Clark play in Commissioner’s Cup final?

No, Clark will not play against the Minnesota Lynx in the Commissioner’s Cup final, the Fever announced hours before the game. Clark had been considered day-to-day after alerting the Fever coaching staff of a groin injury on June 25th following the Fever’s 94-86 win over the Seattle Storm on June 24. She missed the Fever’s loss vs. Los Angeles on June 26 and Indiana’s win at Dallas on June 27 with the injury.

Indiana Fever starting lineup

The Fever is sticking with the same starting lineup that took the court in Indiana’s 94-86 win over the Dallas Wings on Friday. Aari McDonald will make her second start of the season after resigning with the Fever in June.

Minnesota Lynx starting lineup

The Lynx’s starting five includes Napheesa Collier, Bridget Carleton, Alana Smith, Kayla McBride and Courtney Williams. This unit has started nine previous games together and have gone 8-1.

WNBA Commissioner’s Cup champions, by year

Here’s every team that has won the WNBA’s in-season tournament since it began in 2021:

  • 2024: Minnesota Lynx def. New York Liberty
  • 2023: New York Liberty def. Las Vegas Aces
  • 2022: Las Vegas Aces def. Chicago Sky
  • 2021: Seattle Storm def. Connecticut Sun

Caitlin Clark, Napheesa Collier named WNBA All-Star captains

Clark and Collier will go head to head in the 2025 WNBA Commissioner’s Cup final on Tuesday and the 2025 WNBA All-Star Game will mark Round 2.

On Sunday, June 29, the WNBA announced that Clark and Collier will serve as captains of this year’s All-Star Game after picking up their second and fifth career All-Star nods, respectively. Clark, the reigning Rookie of the Year, and Collier, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, earned the honor by receiving the most fan votes.

The All-Star Game starters were revealed on June 30.

The USA TODAY app gets you to the heart of the news — fast. Download for award-winning coverage, crosswords, audio storytelling, the eNewspaper and more.

This post appeared first on USA TODAY

In stunner on Day 2 of Wimbledon, No. 2 seed Coco Gauff was eliminated in the first round of Wimbledon by Dayana Yastremska. Gauff had won the French Open last month.

Gauff became the fourth woman in the top 10 rankings to lose in the first round, joining No. 3 seed Jessica Pegula and No. 5 seed Qinwen Zheng, who were also upset on Day 2, and No. 9 seed Paula Badosa, who was eliminated on on Day 1.

‘Playing against Coco it is something special. I played with her already three times, of course now four. It’s 3-1 for her. And a great person and we’re in very good relationship,’ Yastremska said after her Wimbledon victory.

Gauff was clearly short of grasscourt practice while her opponent had reached the final of the Nottingham tournament as well as the quarterfinals at Eastbourne in the run-up to Wimbledon. Gauff served a total of nine double faults and made 29 unforced errors, shaking her head in disbelief as she lost her serve three times in the second set.

Yastremska, on the other hand, looked composed and confident, her searing backhand often fizzing past the stranded Gauff.

‘It was pretty unexpected but it has been a great season for me,’ Yastremska said. ‘I love playing on grass, I feel like this season we are friends.’

This year’s Wimbledon marks the first time since the Open era began in 1968 that two of the top three women’s seeds were eliminated in the first round. Pegula, the other top American, was soundly beaten by No. 116 Elisabetta Cocciaretta, 6-2, 6-3.

Gauff won her second career Grand Slam singles title on June 7, beating world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka 6-7, 6-2, 6-4 to take home the French Open title.

Who is Dayana Yastremska?

Dayana Yastremska, currently ranked No. 42 in the world, is from Odesa, Ukraine. She has won three WTA singles titles: the 2018 Hong Kong Open, the 2019 Hua Hin Championships, and the 2019 Internationaux de Strasbourg. Yastremska achieved her best Grand Slam performance at the 2024 Australian Open, where she reached the semifinals.

How to watch the 2025 Wimbledon tournament?

The 2025 Wimbledon tournament will be broadcast on ESPN, ABC, and the Tennis Channel. Fans wanting to stream the action can watch all matches on ESPN+.

This post appeared first on USA TODAY

Something doesn’t seem quite right when the day before free agency is more exciting than the actual opening of free agency.

That’s because NHL general managers did their best to remove some of the bigger names in the market on June 30. Mitch Marner, Brad Marchand, Aaron Ekblad, Patrick Kane and Ivan Provorov were all gone on Monday.

There still was some action on Tuesday. Brock Boeser, who had seemed all but gone, re-signed with the Vancouver Canucks. Mikael Granlund joined the Anaheim Ducks. Vladislav Gavrikov went to the New York Rangers, and the Rangers traded K’Andre Miller to the Carolina Hurricanes.

Here are the winners and losers from the last two days of NHL free agency:

WINNERS

Florida Panthers

It seemed unlikely that Panthers general manager Bill Zito would be able to bring back his big three free agents of Sam Bennett, Aaron Ekblad and Brad Marchand but he got it done.

‘This is 100 percent those guys wanting to be part of something they created,’ Zito said.

He then got Tomas Nosek re-signed, meaning all 12 forwards who skated in the Panthers’ Stanley Cup-clinching win are under contract. The only main player who left is defenseman Nate Schmidt, but Zito signed Jeff Petry as a replacement.

Vegas Golden Knights

They’re adding prolific scorer Mitch Marner to a roster that already has lots of offense in Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, Tomas Hertl and Pavel Dorofeyev. The question is whether Marner can produce in the postseason, but that’s pretty far away.

New York Rangers

The Rangers have been sloppy defensively, so it was good to add Gavrikov, the top defensive defenseman in the free agent class. They had to part with Miller to make the money work, but they received a prospect and two draft picks in the deal. General manager Chris Drury also got restricted free agent forward Will Cuylle re-signed for two years. He had been considered a potential target for an offer sheet.

LOSERS

Los Angeles Kings

Losing Gavrikov was tough. They also traded young defenseman Jordan Spence. Cody Ceci and Brian Dumoulin don’t seem like adequate replacements.

Teams seeking goaltending help

Jake Allen was the top free agent goalie and he signed a five-year, $9 million contract to return to the New Jersey Devils. Goaltenders Vitek Vanecek (Utah), Dan Vladar (Philadelphia), David Rittich (Islanders), Anton Forsberg (Los Angeles), Matt Murray (Seattle) and Alex Nedeljkovic (San Jose) did move. Ilya Samsonov, James Reimer and Alexandar Georgiev are among the goalies still available.

Dallas Stars

Mikael Granlund was a good fit for the Stars after he arrived before the 2025 trade deadline, but they didn’t have the cap space to re-sign him. They did sign Radek Faksa, a former Star, but he’s more of a depth player.

This post appeared first on USA TODAY

Clean energy stocks fell Monday as President Donald Trump’s spending legislation now includes a tax on wind and solar projects using Chinese components and abruptly phases out key credits.

Shares of NextEra Energy, the largest renewable developer in the U.S., fell 4%. Solar stocks Array Technologies, Enphase and Nextracker were down between 1% and 9%.

The Senate is voting Monday on amendments to the legislation. The current draft ends the two most important tax credits for solar and wind projects placed in service after 2027.

“The latest Senate draft bill will destroy millions of jobs in America and cause immense strategic harm to our country,” Tesla CEO Elon Musk posted on X over the weekend. “Utterly insane and destructive. It gives handouts to industries of the past while severely damaging industries of the future.”

Previous versions of the bill were more flexible, allowing projects that began construction before 2027 to qualify for the investment and electricity production tax credits, according to Monday note from Goldman Sachs.

The change “compresses project timelines and adds significant execution risk,” Bank of America analyst Dimple Gosal told clients in a note Monday. “Developers with large ’25 pipelines, may struggle to meet the new deadlines — potentially delaying or downsizing planned investments.”

The Senate legislation also slaps a tax on solar and wind projects that enter service after 2027 if they use components made in China.

“The latest draft in the Senate has become more restrictive for most renewable players, moving toward a worst case outcome for solar and wind, with a few improvements for subsectors on the margin,” Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco told clients in a Sunday note.

To be sure, the rooftop solar industry is viewed by Wall Street as a relative winner from the bill, with Sunrun shares up more than 13% and SolarEdge trading more than 6% higher on Monday. The legislation seems to allow tax credits for leased rooftop systems to remain in place through the end of 2027, which was not the case in previous versions, according to Goldman Sachs.

And First Solar is up more than 9% as the legislation seems to allow the manufacturer to claim credits for both components and final products, according to Bank of America.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Love your Costco dupes? Lululemon is coming after them.

Lululemon has filed a lawsuit against Costco, accusing the big box store of selling knockoffs of the athleisure brand’s apparel for a fraction of the price.

According to the complaint filed Friday in the Central District of California, Costco allegedly ‘unlawfully traded’ on Lululemon’s ‘reputation, goodwill and sweat equity’ by selling unauthorized and unlicensed knockoffs and dupes, infringing on the company’s popular patents.

The complaint lists several Costco items that appear to rip off Lululemon’s designs and patents: Costco’s ‘Danskin Half-Zip Pullover’ that retails for just $8. The lawsuit claims it’s a dupe for Lululemon’s SCUBA pullover that sells for $118. Costco’s ‘Jockey Ladies Yoga Jacket’ and ‘Spyder Women’s Yoga Jacket,’ which sell for $22, appear to be a dupe of Lululemon’s DEFINE jacket with a price tag of $128. The ‘Kirkland 5 Pocket Performance Pant,’ sold online for $10, is a dupe for Lululemon’s $128 ABC Pant, the complaint contended.

The lawsuit alleged trade dress infringement, unfair competition under the Lanham Act, patent infringement, and violation of the California Unfair Business Practices Act.

Lululemon seeks to recover monetary damages from lost profits, claiming it suffered ‘significant harm’ to its brands and reputation.

Dupes have surged in popularity, fueled by social media and young people seeking trendy, high-quality clothing without breaking the bank. The suit noted that hashtags like ‘LululemonDupes’ have trended on social media platforms like TikTok, with influencers promoting ‘these copycat products.’

Lululemon, based in Vancouver, acknowledged some companies have replicated its proprietary apparel designs and sold them as ‘dupes.’ The company said it has sent cease and desist letters to such companies, including Costco.

Specifically, the suit claimed Costco sells dupes of Lululemon’s popular SCUBA, DEFINE, and ABC lines, ‘which have earned substantial fame and considerable goodwill among the public.’

Costco allegedly profited off confusion and allowed customers to believe the products are authentic, the lawsuit claimed.

The suit said Costco is known to use manufacturers of popular branded products for its own Kirkland label products.

‘This source ambiguity preconditions at least some consumers into believing that private label, Kirkland-branded dupes are in fact manufactured by the authentic suppliers of the ‘original’ products. Defendant does not dispel this ambiguity,’ the complaint said.

In November, Lululemon wrote to Costco about the infringement, and Costco subsequently removed at least some of the products that infringed Lululemon’s SCUBA mark, but later began selling the Hi-Tec Men’s Scuba full zip, the complaint said.

The suit seeks a jury trial and for the court to order Costco to pay Lululemon damages in the form of lost profits, an order to permanently restrain Costco from making or selling more dupes, and an order to remove any ads or posts displaying the infringing products.

Costco did not immediately respond to NBC News’ request for comment on Tuesday.

Lululemon said in a statement that ‘as an innovation-led company that invests significantly in the research, development, and design of our products, we take the responsibility of protecting and enforcing our intellectual property rights very seriously and pursue the appropriate legal action when necessary.’

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

A Greek Odyssey

First of all, I apologize for any potential delays or inconsistencies this week. I’m currently writing this from a hotel room in Greece, surrounded by what I can only describe as the usual Greek chaos. Our flight back home was first delayed, then canceled, then rescheduled and delayed again. So instead of being back at my desk as planned, I’m getting back into the trenches from a small Greek town. But the markets wait for no one, so here we are!

Market Sector Shifts: Tech Takes the Lead

The changes in our top five aren’t massive, but they’re certainly worth noting. Technology has muscled its way back to the #1 spot, nudging Industrials down to second. Communication Services and Utilities are holding steady at positions #3 and #4 respectively. The most interesting move, imho, is Financials re-entering the top five at #5, up from #7 last week.

Real estate remains just outside at #6, while Consumer Staples has dropped out of the top five, landing at #7. Materials and Energy are still bringing up the rear at #8 and #9. In a bit of musical chairs, Consumer Discretionary and Health Care have swapped places — Discretionary now at #10 and Health Care down to #11.

  1. (2) Technology – (XLK)*
  2. (1) Industrials – (XLI)*
  3. (3) Communication Services – (XLC)
  4. (4) Utilities – (XLU)
  5. (7) Financials – (XLF)*
  6. (6) Real-Estate – (XLRE)
  7. (5) Consumer Staples – (XLP)*
  8. (8) Materials – (XLB)
  9. (9) Energy – (XLE)
  10. (11) Consumer Discretionary – (XLY)*
  11. (10) Healthcare – (XLV)*

Weekly RRG

The weekly Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) paints a clear picture of Technology’s strength as it powers further into the leading quadrant. Industrials is still in the lead, but has started to lose some relative momentum — though it’s maintaining the highest RS-ratio reading. Communication Services is showing a clear upward rotation, while Financials and Utilities are inside the weakening quadrant with negative headings (but still above the 100 level, keeping them in the top five).

Daily RRG

  • Technology and Communication Services flexing their muscles in the leading quadrant
  • Industrials inside lagging, but turning back up
  • Financials in improving on a positive heading
  • Utilities rotating back down at a negative heading, close to crossing into lagging

The sector at risk here is clearly Utilities — at least for now.

Technology

The Technology sector chart is showing a very clear breakout above the resistance area around 240. It’s a decisive move, and that old resistance should now act as support. This breakout is mirrored in the relative strength line, which has continued its upward trajectory after breaking out of the falling channel.

Industrials

Industrials are also flexing their muscles, clearing overhead resistance with a nice breakout. The relative strength line, already out of its consolidation pattern, appears to be gaining momentum again. This is starting to drag the RS ratio line higher.

Communication Services

Communication Services is showing a clear upward break over the 105 resistance area. Just like Tech and Industrials, that old resistance is now expected to act as support. The price strength is finally reflected in the relative strength line, which has started to move up against the rising support line. This is causing the RS momentum line to pull up, almost crossing back over the 100 level, which should, in turn, push Communication Services back into the leading quadrant on the weekly RRG.

Utilities

Utilities, one of the defensive sectors in this cyclical power play, has remained static within its range. But in this market, standing still means losing relative strength. The utility sector is becoming increasingly at risk, with its relative strength chart returning to the trading range and heading towards the lower boundary. This is dragging the RRG lines lower.

Financials

Financials, our new entrant in the top five, is still grappling with the old rising support line and overhead resistance level. However, last week’s price action seems to have broken the sector out of a small consolidation pattern. If Financials can now take out the overhead resistance just above 52, it’ll be a powerful sign for this sector.

Portfolio Performance

From a portfolio performance perspective, we’re getting hurt by the strength of the Technology sector. It’s in the portfolio, but not enough to keep up with the S&P 500’s performance. We’re still underperforming by around 8%.

To turn this situation around, we need sustained moves higher by Technology, Communication Services, and potentially Financials. If Consumer Discretionary could join the party at some stage, that would be ideal — but it’s still far off at #10. For now, we’ll have to work with what we’ve got, especially from Tech and Communication Services, with potential boosts from Financials and Industrials. Utilities are likely to be a drag while they remain in the top five, given the current bullish market sentiment.

#StayAlert and have a great week. –Julius


In this video, Mary Ellen spotlights key pullback opportunities and reversal setups in the wake of a strong market week, one which saw all-time highs in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. She breaks down the semiconductor surge and explores the bullish momentum in economically-sensitive sectors, including software, regional banks, and small-caps. Watch as she highlights top stocks to add to your watchlist, including FedEx, XPO, CHRW, and RL, plus identifies downtrend reversal candidates like AeroVironment (AVAV) and Nike, supported by volume and technical breakouts. In addition, she covers smart entry tactics, examining historical precedent with Coinbase.

This video originally premiered on June 27, 2025. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

Below is the EB Weekly Market Report that I sent out earlier to our EarningsBeats.com members. This will give you an idea of the depth of our weekly report, which is a very small piece of our regular service offerings. We called both the stock market top in February and stock market bottom in April, and encouraged EB members to lower risk at the time of the former and increase risk at the time of the latter.

There is no better time to experience our service for yourself as we’re currently running a FLASH SALE that offers a 20% discount on annual memberships. The timing to join couldn’t be better as I’ll be providing my Q3 outlook to all EB annual members at 5:30pm ET today. A recording will be provided for those who cannot attend the session live. So if you sign up later today or tomorrow or the next day, we’ll make sure you get a time-stamped copy of the recording.

In the meantime, enjoy this complimentary copy of this week’s report….

ChartLists/Spreadsheets Updated

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated over the weekend:

  • Strong Earnings (SECL)
  • Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
  • Strong AD (SADCL)
  • Raised Guidance (RGCL)
  • Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
  • Short Squeeze (SSCL)
  • Leading Stocks (LSCL)
  • Manipulation Spreadsheet*

*We continued to add more stocks to our Manipulation Spreadsheet and you’ll see that a few have tabs, but do not have data yet. Those 3 are still “under construction”. I also added a “Summary” tab where I’ve begun to sort the individual stocks in order based on a proprietary relative AD ranking system. Don’t ask me what it means yet, because it’s still very much a work in progress as well. I’m looking at the intraday relative performance of individual stocks vs. the benchmark S&P 500. So positive percentages represent better intraday AD performance than the S&P 500, while negative percentages represent the opposite. One thing I’ll be watching is to see if stronger relative AD lines precede relative strength in stocks on a forward-looking basis. It certainly did in the case of both Netflix (NFLX) and Microsoft (MSFT) from several weeks ago when I pointed out what appeared to me to be significant accumulation in March/April when the stock market bottomed. Both NFLX and MSFT have soared since that time. I’ll keep everyone posted on the progress of my research over the next many weeks and months.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks – S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks – S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

If you’re a long-term investor, stepping back and looking at the stock market using this 100-year chart enables you to avoid pulling unnecessary sell triggers, because of the media, permabears, negative nellie’s, and all the “news” out there. The above chart never once flashed anything remotely signaling a sell signal and now, here we are, back at all-time highs. Simply put, it filters out all the noise that we hear on a day-to-day basis and keeps our wits about us.

Sustainability Ratios

Here’s the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

Absolute price action on both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 has now seen all-time high breakouts, which alone is quite bullish. We want to see aggressive vs. defensive (or growth vs. value) ratios moving higher to indicate sustainability of any S&P 500 advance. In my view, we’re seeing that. But the intraday QQQ:SPY ratio continues to hesitate. A breakout in this intraday relative ratio would most definitely add to the current bullish market environment.

IWM:QQQ

I’m seeing signs of an impending rate cut by the Fed. However, if I’m being completely honest, one signal that we should see is outperformance in small caps and a rising IWM:QQQ ratio. That hasn’t happened – at least not yet. If a rate cut starts to become clearer, I would absolutely expect to see much more relative strength in small caps. Keep an eye out for that.

XLY:XLP

I pay very close attention to the XLY:XLP ratio and, more specifically, this INTRADAY XLY:XLP ratio. This chart helped me feel confident in calling a market top back in January/February. If you recall, that’s when we said it was waaaaay too risky to be long the U.S. stock market. By the time we had bottomed in April, the blue-shaded area highlighted the fact that the XLY vs. XLP ratio had already begun to SOAR! That’s why, on Friday, April 11th, I said I was ALL IN on the long side again.

These signals are golden and, when used in conjunction with all of our other signals, can provide us extremely helpful clues about stock market direction. If these ratios begin to turn lower in a big way, then yes we’ll need to grow more cautious. However, right now, they couldn’t be any more bullish. Expect higher prices ahead.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.

The S&P 500 had struggled a bit once 5-day SMA readings of the CPCE fell to the .55 area, a sign of market complacency and a possible short-term top. We saw a bit of a pullback in June, which many times is all we get during a secular bull market advance. My sustainability ratios are supporting a higher move by stocks and I know from history that overbought conditions can remain overbought. I also know that sentiment does a much better job of calling bottoms than it does calling tops. That’s why I will not overreact every time this 5-day moving average of the CPCE falls back below .55. During Q4 2024, we saw plenty of 5-day SMA readings below .55 and, while the S&P 500 was choppy, bullishness prevailed throughout. So just please always keep in mind that these 5-day SMA readings are our “speed boat” sentiment indicator that changes quite frequently. When it lines up with other bearish or topping signals, we should take note. But reacting to every subtle move in this chart is a big mistake, in my opinion.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

This longer-term 253-day SMA of the CPCE is our “ocean-liner” signal, unlike our speedboat indicator. This one usually provides us a very solid long-term signal as the overall market environment moves from one of pessimism to complacency and vice versa. Look at the above chart. When the 253-day SMA is moving lower like it is now, it accompanies our most bullish S&P 500 moves. It makes perfect common sense as well. Once this 253-day SMA moves to extremely high levels and begins to roll over, the bears have already sold. We typically have nowhere to go on our major indices, except higher once sentiment becomes so bearish. The opposite holds true when the 253-day SMA reaches extreme complacency and starts to turn higher. We saw that to start 2022, which, at the time, I stated was my biggest concern as we started 2022. If you recall, I said to look for a 20-25% cyclical bear market over a 3-6 month period on the first Saturday in January 2022. The above chart was my biggest reason for calling for such a big selloff ahead of the decline.

These charts matter.

Long-Term Trade Setup

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I’ve discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. Below is a quick recap of how these stocks looked one week ago:

  • JPM – challenging all-time high
  • BA – substantial improvement, would like to see 185-190 support hold
  • FFIV – very bullish action above its 20-month SMA
  • MA – very steady and bullish long-term performer
  • GS – trending higher above 20-month EMA
  • FDX – trying to clear falling 20-week EMA
  • AAPL – monthly RSI at 50, which has been an excellent time to buy AAPL over the past two decades
  • CHRW – 85-90 is solid longer-term support
  • JBHT – would like to see 120-125 support hold
  • STX – long-term breakout in play, excellent trade
  • HSY – breaking above 175 would be intermediate-term bullish
  • DIS – now testing key price resistance in 120-125 range
  • MSCI – monthly RSI hanging near 50, solid entry
  • SBUX – moved back above 50-week EMA, short-term bullish
  • KRE – long-term uptrend remains in play
  • ED – has been a solid income-producer and investment since the financial crisis low in 2009
  • AJG – few stocks have been steadier to the upside over the past decade
  • NSC – continues to sideways consolidate in very bullish fashion
  • RHI – trending down with potential sight set on 30
  • ADM – looks to be reversing higher off long-term price support near 43
  • BG – 65-70 price support held, now looking to clear 50-week SMA to the upside
  • CVS – excellent support at 45 or just below, just failed on bounce at 50-month SMA at 72
  • IPG – monthly RSI now at 37 and also testing 4-year price support near 22.50
  • HRL – long-term price support at 25 and stock now showing positive divergence on monthly chart – bullish
  • DE – one of the better 2025 momentum stocks on this list

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we’re doing with this list and why it’s different.

Also, please keep in mind that I’m not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

Very few companies will report quarterly results until mid-April. The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed:

  • Monday: None
  • Tuesday: STZ ($29 billion)
  • Wednesday: None
  • Thursday: None
  • Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

  • Monday: June Chicago PMI
  • Tuesday: June PMI manufacturing, June ISM manufacturing, May construction spending, May JOLTS
  • Wednesday: June ADP employment report
  • Thursday: Initial jobless claims, June nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate & average hourly earnings, May factory orders, June ISM services
  • Friday: None – stock market closed in observance of Independence Day

Historical Data

I’m a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don’t use history as a primary indicator, I’m always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you’ll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

  • Jun 30: +34.34%
  • Jul 1: +72.77%
  • Jul 2: +16.76%
  • Jul 3: +77.19%
  • Jul 4: +0.00% (market closed – holiday)
  • Jul 5: +39.40%
  • Jul 6: +22.32%
  • Jul 7: +17.62%
  • Jul 8: -16.29%
  • Jul 9: +76.54%
  • Jul 10: -16.59%
  • Jul 11: +13.23%
  • Jul 12: +36.89%
  • Jul 13: -5.67%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

  • Jun 30: +73.30%
  • Jul 1: +63.18%
  • Jul 2: -47.43%
  • Jul 3: +46.02%
  • Jul 4: +0.00% (market closed – holiday)
  • Jul 5: +7.04%
  • Jul 6: -10.79%
  • Jul 7: +60.19%
  • Jul 8: -10.10%
  • Jul 9: +86.44%
  • Jul 10: -27.94%
  • Jul 11: +11.18%
  • Jul 12: +128.28%
  • Jul 13: +61.52%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

  • Jun 30: +99.14%
  • Jul 1: +30.53%
  • Jul 2: -113.05%
  • Jul 3: +44.57%
  • Jul 4: +0.00% (market closed – holiday)
  • Jul 5: -4.89%
  • Jul 6: -76.61%
  • Jul 7: +43.95%
  • Jul 8: +37.24%
  • Jul 9: +31.88%
  • Jul 10: -17.39%
  • Jul 11: +29.75%
  • Jul 12: +89.15%
  • Jul 13: +63.13%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

All-time highs are always a time for me to say “I told you so” to the bears, since I’ve been a firm believer that we remain in a secular bull market advance – one in which we should EXPECT to see higher prices and all-time highs. This latest rally is being fully supported by risk-on areas of the market, which will almost certainly lead for more and more all-time highs down the road.

Here are several things I’m watching this week:

  • Jobs. The ADP employment report will be out on Wednesday and the more-closely-watched nonfarm payrolls will be released on Thursday this week since the stock market is closed on Friday. ANY sign of weakness in these reports will begin to put mounting pressure on the Fed to cut rates in late July at their next meeting.
  • Technical Price Action. Any time we’re setting new all-time highs, I start off with a bullish mindset. I only turn bearish if I’m inundated with warning signals. Currently, I see few of those.
  • History. We can now turn our attention to upcoming earnings season and, historically, that’s a bullish thing. Pre-earnings season runs to the upside are common and, if you scroll up and check out historical returns for days over the next couple weeks, you’ll see that July normally performs well – especially the first half of the month.
  • 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX). The 10-year treasury yield has been in decline for 3 straight weeks, falling from 4.52% on June 9th to 4.24% just a few minutes ago. The money rotating into bonds is a very strong signal that inflation is NOT a problem. It’s also a signal that the Fed “should be” considering a rate cut at its next meeting.
  • Breakouts. We’ve seen big breakouts in key areas like semiconductors ($DJUSSC), software ($DJUSSW), and investment services ($DJUSSB), but there will be plenty more. Travel & tourism ($DJUSTT) joined the party on Thursday. Banks ($DJUSBK) are on the verge of a breakout. The way I look at it? The more the merrier!

Happy trading!

Tom

Mali’s military-led government has completed its takeover of the Yatela and Morila gold mines.

Reuters reported on Monday (June 30) that according to the Malian government, control of the Yatela mine in Western Kayes and the Morila mine in Southern Sikasso has officially been transferred to the Society for Research and Exploitation of Mineral Resources of Mali (SEMOS), a newly formed entity in the country.

The Yatela mine was abandoned in 2016 by Sadiola Exploration Company — a joint venture between South Africa’s AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE:AU,JSE:ANG) and Canada’s IAMGOLD (TSX:IMG,NYSE:IAG) — after the operators deemed continued production uneconomic despite leftover reserves.

Morila, once one of Mali’s flagship gold sites, was abandoned in 2022 by Australia’s Firefinch, which had taken over the site from Barrick Mining (TSX:ABX,NYSE:B) and AngloGold. Mali’s government says Morila was left with “significant environmental and financial liabilities,” raising concerns about whether SEMOS can turn operations around profitably.

These moves are part of a broader push by Mali’s military government, which came to power after coups in 2020 and 2021, to restructure the gold sector and capture more revenue from high commodities prices.

Mali produces around 65 metric tons of gold annually, making it Africa’s second largest producer, yet it lacks an internationally certified refinery and is heavily dependent on foreign operators for both technology and market access.

Earlier this year, Business Insider Africa reported that the country had started construction on a Russia-backed gold refinery, another step meant to increase control over its natural resources.

Since taking power, Mali’s authorities have steadily pressured miners via higher taxes, tougher licensing conditions and new contract terms aligned with its 2023 mining code, which grants the state a bigger stake in operations.

Yet critics caution that simply taking over mines without clear management plans or technical expertise risks undercutting investor confidence and missing out on today’s high gold price.

Gold is up 28.5 percent year-to-date, hitting an all-time high of US$3,500 per ounce in April, driven by geopolitical fears and US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policy.

Mali’s ongoing dispute with Barrick Mining

Mali’s relationship with Barrick has soured amid the country’s move to exert resource sector control.

Earlier this month, a commercial court in Bamako ordered the temporary transfer of control of Barrick’s flagship Loulo-Gounkoto gold complex to a state-appointed administrator for six months.

Judge Issa Aguibou Diallo appointed Soumana Makadji, a former health minister and certified accountant, to oversee the complex, participate in negotiations and report to the court quarterly, but not to the government directly.

Barrick called the move “unjustified” and “unprecedented,” maintaining that it remains committed to previous mining conventions and that the Malian government’s push to apply the 2023 mining code retroactively is legally invalid.

Barrick’s Loulo-Gounkoto complex, among the most productive gold mines in Africa, has been inactive since January after Malian authorities seized roughly 3 metric tons of gold over disputed taxes.

Since November 2024, the government has also blocked gold exports from the site, escalating tensions as the gold rally has boosted Mali’s hopes for greater revenue.

The government insists that Barrick must comply with its revised mining framework. Barrick, on the other hand, has started international arbitration to protect its long-term agreements.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com